Problem in US market mysterious phenomenon bonds

The problem in the US market: the mysterious phenomenon bonds returned

It seems that investors are not
can get enough American
government bonds. Despite the fact that the head
Fed Janet Yellen hinted strongly
Last week, the regulator can
to raise interest rates in June,
Investors went out and bought more
bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasury
bonds, which was
at the level of 2.11% last week, fell
to 1.94% during the press conference Yellen
on Wednesday. And it still varies
around these levels. Typically, the yield
Bonds has always lowered when prices
grow.

But here’s the problem: the situation
the market should be fully
the opposite – when the Fed increases
rates, bond yields should
go up. Alan Greenspan once
I dubbed this "mystery". He was
concerned about this 10 years ago, because
that complicating the Fed’s job.

Former Fed chief
used this word in February 2005,
to describe the fact that the long-term
Treasuries lost yield,
Although the Fed raised short-term rates.

Current chairman
Yellen Federal Reserve System
I have not yet spoken about this “enigma”
bonds. But you’d be surprised if she does not think about it. The fact is that usually
raising rates on short-term
loans made to
keep the economy and financial markets
from overheating. The yield on 10-year-olds
government bonds is an important reference
point for consumers and investors.
It also affects the rates on mortgage
loans.

many financial
experts believe that the long-term
interest rates were too low
long – they say it is from the middle
2000s. In their view, low rates
helped to create a bubble in the market
property, which led to a great
failures in the sector, and the Great Recession
major crisis credit sector.
Of course, Yellen would like to avoid such
terrible consequences.

But low yields
long-term bonds are often
a sign of economic weakness. If
The Fed wants to raise interest rates,
when the market is concerned about the slowdown
economy, it can once again become
problem. Simply put, the bond market
The Fed seems to be saying that the economy is still
not strong enough to adequately
to respond to the increase in rates –
even the smallest.

And another warning
by CNN-Money: Yellen may
"speak" a higher yield
bonds than it actually is. This
trick often used Greenspan. After
his mention of the “puzzle” of bonds
in 2005, the yield on 10-year bonds
It grew from about 4% to 4.7% for
a few weeks.

The Fed is still there
$ 4.5 trillion on its books. Despite
that the Fed is no longer buying new
bonds, it still reinvests
principal payments on bonds. Yellen
again said last week that
The Fed will continue to reinvest in the market
bonds, until he feels that
“Economic conditions are sufficiently
appropriate to start raising
rate. ”

Of course, worry about
many bonds – even among foreign
customers – in particular, China and
Japan – there is a large volume of Treasury
US bonds as the market
The US is still considered the safest
market in the world to invest their money. In addition, bonds
become even more attractive
now, when Europe began their ransom
The program of quantitative
easing (like the one held
Fed up of the previous year). profitability
European bonds even lower than the
rates on US debt securities. but this
mystery can not last indefinitely.
Sooner or later, the bond market or
The Fed itself will signal that
it’s time to change something.

If the 10-year bond
stay at such a low level when
The Fed will start tightening monetary
policy, there is a risk that short-term
interest rates will be higher than the long-term
interest rates. This phenomenon economists
called inverted yield curve.
And it’s not very good – it happens
before every recession in the last 50
years.

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Volume POC

Volume POC

Indicator Volume POC It displays important levels. You can use it as an independent trading system.

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The indicator can be used on very short timeframes. It is suitable for those who commit short-term operation.

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When used properly, you can easily find the key price levels.

Input parameters

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  • 0 = Open / Close, 1 = High / Low (buffer status)
  • Sound and popup setup – the sound settings and pop-ups (ON / OFF, wav)

Volume POC

Video

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End Infinity

End Infinity (or dancing around the Arctic)

Before discussing intelligence forecasts and production of oil in the promising oil and gas bearing provinces Russia, I would like to once again return to the conclusions which I have covered many times in their materials.

After that, strictly speaking, it will be possible to understand why the Russian Siberia and the Arctic cause such a strong reaction – and all participants in the discussion.

End Infinity

1. Russia, like the rest of the world, is taking place now "peak oil"That is, a situation in which there is a gap between the physical production of oil and natural consumption of the same.

As oil, unfortunately, it is still the main and virtually no alternative source of energy for such vital sectors of any economy, such as transport and agriculture, the situation "peak oil" It causes an exponential increase in oil prices, near the beginning of which we have the honor lies.

Of course, this price rise by tens of percent (and even at times) will inevitably destroy the existing structure of the transport and agriculture, and will cause their restructuring. An example of such an adjustment may be Cuba, which in 1991-1999, was forced to totally restructure their transport structure and agriculture under "bezneftyanye standards". This process is very painful, multi-stage and laborious and, at the exit, still get the locomotive treated with a file socialism, shared responsibility and an authoritarian state, which together can provide a reasonable expenditure remains modest energy resources of society.

2. However, in the world there is a group of countries, which has for decades been a net importer of significant quantities of primary energy, and products containing this energy to a great extent. By name: the US, EU, Japan. These three groups of countries are beneficiaries of the existing world order.
Before the era of expensive energy, these countries were (more or less) to pay for this energy in various intangible ways – wrappers (dollars), technology, patents, a unique high value added products and luxury goods.
But since about the end of the 1980s, it began the transfer of high-tech production from these countries to countries with lower labor costs. However, the withdrawal of production and research and development of the Western countries was not linked to any changes in the standard of living of their populations. Cuban recipe proved unacceptable for them.
As a result, on the background of the rising cost of primary energy, this process led to the first cascade of the accumulated debt of the group of countries, and then – and their transition to a blatant interference in the internal affairs of countries exporting energy and products of its processing. This intervention is carried out as a direct, purely military means and by destabilization of internal peace in countries that do not follow in line with the policy of the West to preserve the status quo.

3. Part of the exporting countries of energy (for example – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates) try 100% to follow in the footsteps of Western policy on the preservation of the status quo. However, their own development logic puts limits their ability to export energy. This situation strongly hides the joint efforts of the elites of countries-exporters of oil and Western elites, which in this case are the joint front "You die today, and tomorrow I die".

4. The situation after the peak oil major world players would resemble a war of attrition ("spiders in a jar"), In which each and countries (or groups of countries) will try to close the maximum remaining energy resources. Russia’s position in this next fight, which seems low at first glance, is actually underestimated. At the very least, such a state is observed in the mass consciousness about the real views of Russian and Western elites, I have an opinion.
On the other hand, declared in words the power of the West project, turns in fact unavoidable infrastructure problems.
Problems of the countries-exporters of energy (such as KSA), and net states energy importers (such as, for example, Ukraine), who at the time of the passage of peak oil is not spromoglis build a replacement structure of the economy, which will be able to act without cheap energy, represented generally intractable . Most likely, these countries simply cease to exist in their present form, or will be forced to undergo a transformation, not less painful than Cuba took place in the period 1991-1999.

In addition, based on previous material, I would say that the Russian gas and oil production will not fall "by Hubbert". And will it happen is due to the introduction of new production capacity of the fields named in the previous article. And, if in the case of, for example, Saudi Arabia or Norway, it could be a single new fields, in the case of Russia, it will be the whole province neftegazonostnye (PNC), previously inaccessible due to the remoteness of the consumers and supplied to the lack of transport infrastructure it. Therefore, Russia’s fall from peak production will not go "on classics" (2-3% per year), and much more hollow.

And now – to the most fun. Antarctica and the Arctic. Arctic and Antarctic, are the main array unexplored earth’s surface, which is still possible in principle to find large deposits of oil and gas. Strictly speaking, the activity around the two regions, and will mean that "spiders in the bank" It has finally ends oxygen.

The situation of Antarctica until podmorozhena Antarctic Treaty. This contract was signed in as early as 1959 and not directly posits the absence of any of the exploitation of mineral resources of the continent’s activities. Treaty only regulates the use of Antarctica for peaceful purposes only and the transformation of the territories located to the south of latitude 60 into a zone free of nuclear weapons.

The question of the exploitation of mineral resources of Antarctica puzzled later, held from May 2 to June 2, 1988 ,. in Wellington, New Zealand, the international conference, which was attended by more than 30 States Parties to the Antarctic Treaty and which adopted the Convention on the regulation of the use of mineral resources in Antarctica, and also adopted rules governing the production of oil, gas and mineral resources.

In order to join this Convention into force was needed ratification by 16 states-members of the Antarctic Treaty consultative status. And among these 16 states have to be the Soviet Union and the United States and 7 countries with territorial claims in Antarctica. It provided that the commercial operation or development of the Antarctic stations can take place only after the unanimous approval of a special commission, which will be presented to all voting treaty country.

However, in May 1989, the press reported on the decision of Australia not to sign the Wellington Convention, counting more accurate creation of a natural park on the icy continent. Australia – one of the seven countries claim to territorial rights in the Antarctic and the right of veto in the organization of the States Parties to the Antarctic Treaty.

In general, the bloody regime of penguins already worth thinking about the democratization of the continent, especially because the list of territorial claims to the feathered impresses with its diversity. Everything is thoroughly – with flags, coats of arms and the motto bad that there is no New Swabia and the Nazis – it certainly would make the list of these claims, the delicate touch of a schizophrenic – in the style of the recent Finnish Iron Sky.
Basically, in the Antarctic race, along with the countries specified above can enter the United States and Russia (as the successor of the USSR) as start any exploitation of the natural resources of Antarctica – and the commemoration of the world system of international law can already be considered valid. In the meantime, it rattles only on the approaches to the ice continent, but even that is already smacks of war everything thoroughly.

The main problem in the case of Antarctica, as we understand, yet are only supersurovye climatic conditions on the icy continent. While explore and produce oil and gas there is simply unprofitable.

Another situation in the Arctic. The Arctic is melting. And it turned out that a sufficiently shallow polar sea insanely rich in oil and gas:

End Infinity

More than 10 – is more than 10 billion barrels.. In the case of the Barents Sea, the Yamal and Gydan – etoMNOGO more.

As you can see, the basic amounts of hydrocarbons are concentrated in the Russian sector of the continental shelf – in fact – in the framework of the 200-mile exclusive economic zone of Russia. Here, if anything, we can consider all this in more detail.
Bring any claims on deposits in the Kara Sea – Leningrad or Rusanovskoe, the Russian Barents Sea sector – Ice, Ludlovskoe Shtokman or Murmansk field is impossible in principle – in this case the hell flying the entire system of international law, as in the case of Russia – it war, and, most likely, the war is hot and nuclear.

The recent agreement between Norway and Russia, painted with detail here on this map, in fact, put an end to the case of any claims by third countries to Russia on its exclusive economic zone:

End Infinity

Red dots – colonies of sea birds of passage. But we struggled, as we understand, for purple blotches.

According to the results of this agreement controversial area (disputed area) was divided almost in half. Its potential is interesting, but it turns, in fact, around a single object – Fedynskiy dome. Norwegians call it the backbone of Hjalmar Johansen, so patriotic with the Norwegian point of view.

However, even this large potential (it still has not been drilled), the object is divided as a result of this agreement in the ratio? to Norway, and? Russia.

End Infinity

In addition, the agreement on the disputed zone clearly established the principle of sharing cross-border structures – Fedynskiy dome is simply impossible "pump out" From the Norwegian side, "forgetting" at the same time bring it to Russia. Otherwise – see above – the conflict, the system of international law, war, The World’s End.

Exploration Fedynskiy dome will start soon, with not with the Norwegian Statoil, and with italyanskimEni. However, Statoil is also offered to participate in the development of the Barents Sea, also with "Rosneft"But playing the lottery in other promising areas. In general, not converged light wedge on the Shtokman project and all the eggs are not in one basket – you want to produce oil while – will issue you the sites to search for oil. Spent Total and Statoil have about $ 1.5 billion in the Shtokman -. For God’s sake, but if they want to wait until – let wait.

In short, Russia has a problem – how to master the field. Can be tomorrow, the day after tomorrow can be.

The West has a problem – where bldzhd, take the oil? And – it is desirable to have the day before yesterday!

Well, the main battle for the Arctic – is on its way.

Here it is, the last piece of the oil and gas:

End Infinity

It’s all lies beyond the 200-mile economic zone of the Arctic countries. And, if the 200-mile economic zone, which itself had originated spur of the moment in 1960 -, the question of determining the shelf accessories 1970, when the wealth of the shelf became interested in humanity, and recognized by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 for outside the 200-mile zone it is not so trivial. The UN Convention establishes only 12 miles of sovereign territorial waters and economic zone of 200 miles – with free shipping, but the exclusive rights to the use of mineral and biological resources.

Any country can claim an exclusive economic zone over a length of 200 miles, if it is proved that the shelf from its shores extend beyond this distance. These questions determine the affiliation of the continental shelf beyond the zone itself is still solved by a special commission of the UN Law of the Sea. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union and Canada signed the Convention and is therefore de facto recognized the sovereignty of the United Nations on this issue of maritime law. All historical claims to "polar ownership" Canada and the USSR now, in fact, have the same legal force as the New Swabia. Steers the UN Commission and research – as initially its sovereignty over the shelf is better to prove the geological maps in hand.

Hence, I hope you understand, and stems the interest in the Arctic, in such completely Arctic powers such as China and South Korea – in the case of the Arctic section on the rules of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of ​​the Arctic seas (though this is not the shelf – and vice versa most deep portions!) will be administered by the UN, that is, seems to be a draw. Hence – and a desire to play "Arctic lottery".

After all, the Arctic is melting:

End Infinity

And it melts it from Russia.

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Next deadline for Greece Sunday

The next deadline for Greece – Sunday

According to the results of yesterday’s
meeting of the leaders of the eurozone countries was
It decided to hold this Sunday
new emergency summit that already there
finally decide the fate of Greece. But
ministers themselves about the chances of rescue
the country from defaulting very pessimistic.

"The harsh reality
It is that we have five days to
In order to find a permanent solution,
– said the chairman of Evrosoveta Donald
Tusk. – If we can not come to
agreement, this could lead to
Greece bankruptcy and the collapse of its banking
system".

Tuesday’s meeting
Leaders of the eurozone countries was held in
rather tense atmosphere. creditors
accused the Greek Prime Minister Alexis
Tsipras escalation in tension in
the entire European region, in the absence of
wishes to commend the efforts of the European
taxpayers to save the Greek
economy and undermining mutual trust,
as Bloomberg reports.
"Party at the expense of the rest of fits
by the end. Europe and the euro zone is not exactly
We are willing to pay for irresponsible
the behavior of the Greek government".
– said the President of Lithuania Dalia Grybauskaite.

Perhaps, in order to save
Greece needed now "miracle".
said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
"I am very pessimistic and
anxiously waiting for an answer to the question of whether
whether Greece wants to really make
new proposals, whether it is ready to look for
way out", – he said.

The head of the European Commission
Jean-Klod Yunker said that the Eurogroup
ready for the negative developments:
"We have a script with all the details
in case of Grexit. All is ready".

ECB President Mario Draghi
said yesterday that Greek banks
able to survive until the end of the week, but it is unlikely
stretched longer, writes Financial Times. If
prospects for the signing of the agreement is not
will the ECB do to stop future
week extra support banks
countries.

It is expected that the specific
action from the Greek government’s plan
will present today, while the Eurogroup
consider the proposals on Saturday,
and on Sunday the final
a decision on Greece will be at the summit of EU leaders.

It should be noted that the lenders
They are now demanding from Greece tougher
budget cuts and reforms,
than previously, before the referendum, writes The Wall
Street Journal. Financial Times confirms that
new conditions much harsher those on
that Greece could still negotiate a couple
weeks ago.

However, participants
Summit promise to give Greece
short-term financing to
she was able to pay off the loan on July 20
ECB, writes WSJ. Tsipras speak today
before MEPs to
Athens explain negotiating position
with international lenders.

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Patent wars have ended Samsung Apple agreed to

Patent wars have ended: Samsung Apple agreed to pay half a billion dollars

South Korean
Samsung Electronics said it agreed to pay
its main competitor compensation
to $ 548 million for damages caused as a result of
Copy some iPhone features.
As the newspaper writes AppleInsider, Samsung recently
It reached an agreement with Apple Inc.
and pay $ 548 176 477 for the violation of rights
its intellectual property.

patent
the war between Apple and Samsung is from 2011:
“Yabloko” then curled that the Koreans
We copied the technology of manufacturing
and the design of their iPhone. Before the release of the first
iPhone Apple has patented
new technologies to protect their
rights to them. Among these patents there,
e.g., unlocking the movement of the screen
finger ( «slide to unlock»), which quickly
“Borrowed” by other manufacturers. Besides
of the claim specified in the patent system
data detection when displayed
phone numbers in the Address Book
the first digit, and automatic
correction words typed on a smartphone.

In May last
, a jury in the US ruled
that Samsung should pay Apple’s $ 120 million, but
not entered an injunction against the use of
technology. Samsung, in turn, supported
many other companies – Google, HTC, LG
Electronics, which convinced the court that the victory
Apple will allow the company "unfair
use of its patent for
gain a competitive advantage".

In court this September
it was decided that Apple has the right
for an injunction against certain
features Samsung, which violate devices
its patents. Federal Appeals
Court in Washington ruled that Samsung
It should update the software of its smartphones and
remove the screen unlock function
finger, autocorrect words and
quick links to programs that
mimic the properties of a patented
iPhone. However, experts doubt then,
that Koreans forced to withdraw from the
sales of its smartphones.

According to the results of trading on Monday
Apple shares fell 0.63%, shares in Samsung fell
Tuesday 14:40 MSK to 1.49%.

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USD index at 3 week peak on eve of US data and

USD index at 3-week peak on the eve of the US data and Fed officials speech

On Wednesday, the dollar rose to a three-week high against other major currencies because investors expect today the release of US data on home sales, as well as comments from a number of officials of the Federal Reserve System.

USD / JPY The pair dropped by 0.27% to 111.80.

Demand for asylum-yen received support since Wednesday, oil prices broke through $ 32 after Saudi Oil Minister said that the reduction in production “will not.”

Meanwhile, Iran has made it clear that does not have any interest in frozen production after the sanctions were lifted from it, calling the joint Russian-Saudi proposal largest exporters to reduce the volume of production “ridiculous.”

The dollar edged higher against the pound, with GBP / USD pair fell by 0.88% to 1.3899, falling below $ 1.40 for the first time since March 2009.

The pound came under broad selling pressure on concerns about the national economy, if June 23 Britons will vote in a referendum for Brexit.

This week, the pound fell 2.9% after several major politicians from the Conservative Party Prime Minister David Cameron, including the Mayor of London Boris Dzhonson, said that they will support the campaign for the country’s exit from the EU.

The dollar also strengthened against the euro, with EUR / USD down 0.34% to 1.0981.

The euro weakened this week on concerns about the impact on the euro zone Brexit.

The pair USD / CHF up 0.08% to 0.9921.

Meanwhile, Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, AUD / USD pair decreased by 0.56% to 0.7164, and NZD / USD pair retreated 0.68% to 0.6598.

Pair USD / CAD up 0.27% to 1.3827.

USD index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major rivals, rose by 0.32% to 97.77, its highest level since 3 February.

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Comparison of operating systems and processors

Comparison of operating systems and processors in optimizing

Greetings!

After the introduction of the MT5 optimization and testing on real tick data, at times increased the computation time at optimization of experts. In this regard, I made for myself a small blade server 6 Intel-I7 processors and make it work as efficiently as possible, I decided to compare the performance of the optimization, depending on the operating system. Tested Windows 7 Pro, Windows 8.1 Pro, and Windows 2008 Server, Windows 2012. All settings are fresh, installed only the driver and iron terminal, ie, nothing extra.

So, in the blade server has 5 processors and Intel I7-6700T to Compare 1 processor I7-6700. All processors run in the turbo mode, the clock frequency I7-6700T = 3.4GHz, and I7-6700 = 3.7Ggts, i.e. a difference of about 8%. Motherboard same RAM – 8 GB Drives – SSD Kingston same speed.

1 of server computers – leading terminal run on it, which triggers optimization. On all other terminals are installed, but they do not run, because use only agents working as a hidden service. All computers are installed different OS (see the screenshots below), all set to priority work services running in the background.

expert – "heavy" multicurrency, are moving in the optimization of input variables that do not affect the result of the calculation, ie the number of transactions and calculations for all the different passes – exactly the same. So we’ll see the difference in speed of calculation depends only on the OS or processor type.

So the first test run. The first 10-15 minutes of all the processors say about the same rate:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

After a few more minutes, Win8 and Win7 with a more powerful processor I7-6700 stepped forward, and the others began to slow down:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

He compared the systems performance indicators and noticed that Win8 threw half of the memory cache.

Comparison of operating systems and processors

Other systems have not done so, and to make maximum use of RAM:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

It was concluded that Win8 optimally works with the memory, thereby computing the speed it up. After 8 hours gap in speed of computation become visible.

After that, for a better comparison of processors and I7-6700T I7-6700 I7-6700 in the system has been installed Win8 (003pc in the screenshot)

It was also suggested that for the terminals on other operating systems (not Win8) does not have enough memory. 16 GB of RAM was found in 2 of them Win7 and Win 2008. In addition, the network has been connected to 4 computers with different processors, for comparison.

So the beginning of the run, when the gap became evident:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

Win8 still ahead.

Additive memory Win 7 to 16 GB accelerated calculations but Win 8 c 8 GB running all the faster (84% vs. 90% for Win8). Oddly enough, but the memory of the additive in Win 2008 does not improve performance.

The fastest computationally 1 agent / flux turned I3 with Win8, but since from I7 – 8 threads in the end he will make more calculations in a single period of time.

I5-6500T on Win7 with 8GB (i.e., 2GB on stream) running around the assembly of I7 at Win7 with 16GB. But again, because from I7 – 8 threads in the end he will make more calculations in a single period of time.

One I7-6700T on Win7 with 8GB loaded half i.e. 4 a flow of 8, it runs at a speed approximately as Win8 1 stream, but it will make the sum of 2 times less computation.

10 hours see the following picture:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

Systems Win8 with 8GB RAM underwent 8-9 passages optimization, while in other systems 4.

Delivery of 16 GB per one of Win7 helped it to accelerate to 7 passes.

I3, I5 and I7-4790T of the network are connected via WiFi, but the WiFi sometimes fails (it is clear that the task given to them more than others), and on loss of communication are cut off calculation and start from scratch when you restore communication.

I7-6700T I7-6700 and about 8% to differ, as can be seen from the fact that I7-6700T performed for 7 – 8 optimization passages and I7-6700 8 – 9 passes over the same time. So it is better to use a wired network.

As a result, comparing OS, get all things being equal:

Win7, Win 2008, Win 2012 c 8GB of RAM made by 4 passes

Win 8 c 8 GB of RAM made 7 – 8 passes over the same time. It seems that – due to the reset of the RAM cache.

The difference in the two times is very unexpected, thought will calculate a few percent, and then just 100%. For myself, I decided to completely switch to Win 8 for computers that carry out optimization.

You can carry out a similar experiment to compare with my results. If they are reproducible, it could be recommended to anyone to use it to optimize Win8. Perhaps there is a way to make other operating systems behave like Win8, ie reset the memory to the cache. But because I’m not special in the OS, I do not know how to do it. Maybe someone from the readers will help in this.

In addition, a comparison made c Win 10 Pro. It works with the same efficiency as Win 8. Here’s a screenshot:

Comparison of operating systems and processors

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