There are two news: good and bad
Markets are changing with the mood of pessimism early February to return to risk appetite.
Will it be long? After a week of holidays in China, investors are wary awaited return this constant source of danger. And the week began with a morning publication of the trade surplus of China. The difference between its exports and imports has much to say about the affairs of this huge supplier and the consumer goods world. So. The balance in general has increased in January to 63.29 billion against 60.09 billion. A month earlier. And here’s good news, really positive. However, if we dig deeper: fell, and export and import, and the difference between them has increased because imports weakening more than exports (minus 18.8% and 11.2%, respectively). Bad news. Because it is the volume of Chinese imports is largely influenced by commodity prices. But in the United States on Friday came out excellent retail sales data, which rose by 3.4% in January from 2.2% in December. Important good news. This indicator reflects the effective demand, the impact of growth in employment and wages, as well as opportunities for future development, as the rise in the population gives sales incentives and the subsequent production of goods and services.
And now the stocks in turmoil. China’s Shanghai Composite fell by 1.57% to 2,720.03.Zato other “Asians” on the rise after the fall of panic last week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +2.73%, yaponskiyNikkei + 6.14%.
This combination suggests a fragile and gentle superiority in risk appetite over the erstwhile panic moods. Therefore, on Monday slightly reduced and defensive assets – gold, euro, yen (for the recent troubles was an unexpected decline in Japan’s GDP by 1.4% in Q4).
For oil prices, which means the probability of further consolidation in the top of the range $ corrective 32,2-34 futures for Brent and $ 28,2-30 for WTI. Constantly recurring rumors of a possible meeting of OPEC to coordinate production push quotes up. Until next refute these rumors … and a new peak of black gold.
But since the markets’ fall tired “, it is possible to continue the stabilization and stock indexes in Europe and America today.
Termination of risk aversion is favorable for the Russian stock indices. MICEX, rebounding from the support approximately 1700 p., Can be adjusted up and leave above the local resistance of 1732 n.
Russian ruble rally for oil salutary. The graph dollar / RUB shaped figure Japanese candlestick analysis “bearish engulfing” talking on the probability traverse pair downwards. The ruble against the dollar may rise to 77.7. Well, three sevens – the lucky number …
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