End Infinity (or dancing around the Arctic)
Before discussing intelligence forecasts and production of oil in the promising oil and gas bearing provinces Russia, I would like to once again return to the conclusions which I have covered many times in their materials.
After that, strictly speaking, it will be possible to understand why the Russian Siberia and the Arctic cause such a strong reaction – and all participants in the discussion.
1. Russia, like the rest of the world, is taking place now "peak oil"That is, a situation in which there is a gap between the physical production of oil and natural consumption of the same.
As oil, unfortunately, it is still the main and virtually no alternative source of energy for such vital sectors of any economy, such as transport and agriculture, the situation "peak oil" It causes an exponential increase in oil prices, near the beginning of which we have the honor lies.
Of course, this price rise by tens of percent (and even at times) will inevitably destroy the existing structure of the transport and agriculture, and will cause their restructuring. An example of such an adjustment may be Cuba, which in 1991-1999, was forced to totally restructure their transport structure and agriculture under "bezneftyanye standards". This process is very painful, multi-stage and laborious and, at the exit, still get the locomotive treated with a file socialism, shared responsibility and an authoritarian state, which together can provide a reasonable expenditure remains modest energy resources of society.
2. However, in the world there is a group of countries, which has for decades been a net importer of significant quantities of primary energy, and products containing this energy to a great extent. By name: the US, EU, Japan. These three groups of countries are beneficiaries of the existing world order.
Before the era of expensive energy, these countries were (more or less) to pay for this energy in various intangible ways – wrappers (dollars), technology, patents, a unique high value added products and luxury goods.
But since about the end of the 1980s, it began the transfer of high-tech production from these countries to countries with lower labor costs. However, the withdrawal of production and research and development of the Western countries was not linked to any changes in the standard of living of their populations. Cuban recipe proved unacceptable for them.
As a result, on the background of the rising cost of primary energy, this process led to the first cascade of the accumulated debt of the group of countries, and then – and their transition to a blatant interference in the internal affairs of countries exporting energy and products of its processing. This intervention is carried out as a direct, purely military means and by destabilization of internal peace in countries that do not follow in line with the policy of the West to preserve the status quo.
3. Part of the exporting countries of energy (for example – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates) try 100% to follow in the footsteps of Western policy on the preservation of the status quo. However, their own development logic puts limits their ability to export energy. This situation strongly hides the joint efforts of the elites of countries-exporters of oil and Western elites, which in this case are the joint front "You die today, and tomorrow I die".
4. The situation after the peak oil major world players would resemble a war of attrition ("spiders in a jar"), In which each and countries (or groups of countries) will try to close the maximum remaining energy resources. Russia’s position in this next fight, which seems low at first glance, is actually underestimated. At the very least, such a state is observed in the mass consciousness about the real views of Russian and Western elites, I have an opinion.
On the other hand, declared in words the power of the West project, turns in fact unavoidable infrastructure problems.
Problems of the countries-exporters of energy (such as KSA), and net states energy importers (such as, for example, Ukraine), who at the time of the passage of peak oil is not spromoglis build a replacement structure of the economy, which will be able to act without cheap energy, represented generally intractable . Most likely, these countries simply cease to exist in their present form, or will be forced to undergo a transformation, not less painful than Cuba took place in the period 1991-1999.
In addition, based on previous material, I would say that the Russian gas and oil production will not fall "by Hubbert". And will it happen is due to the introduction of new production capacity of the fields named in the previous article. And, if in the case of, for example, Saudi Arabia or Norway, it could be a single new fields, in the case of Russia, it will be the whole province neftegazonostnye (PNC), previously inaccessible due to the remoteness of the consumers and supplied to the lack of transport infrastructure it. Therefore, Russia’s fall from peak production will not go "on classics" (2-3% per year), and much more hollow.
And now – to the most fun. Antarctica and the Arctic. Arctic and Antarctic, are the main array unexplored earth’s surface, which is still possible in principle to find large deposits of oil and gas. Strictly speaking, the activity around the two regions, and will mean that "spiders in the bank" It has finally ends oxygen.
The situation of Antarctica until podmorozhena Antarctic Treaty. This contract was signed in as early as 1959 and not directly posits the absence of any of the exploitation of mineral resources of the continent’s activities. Treaty only regulates the use of Antarctica for peaceful purposes only and the transformation of the territories located to the south of latitude 60 into a zone free of nuclear weapons.
The question of the exploitation of mineral resources of Antarctica puzzled later, held from May 2 to June 2, 1988 ,. in Wellington, New Zealand, the international conference, which was attended by more than 30 States Parties to the Antarctic Treaty and which adopted the Convention on the regulation of the use of mineral resources in Antarctica, and also adopted rules governing the production of oil, gas and mineral resources.
In order to join this Convention into force was needed ratification by 16 states-members of the Antarctic Treaty consultative status. And among these 16 states have to be the Soviet Union and the United States and 7 countries with territorial claims in Antarctica. It provided that the commercial operation or development of the Antarctic stations can take place only after the unanimous approval of a special commission, which will be presented to all voting treaty country.
However, in May 1989, the press reported on the decision of Australia not to sign the Wellington Convention, counting more accurate creation of a natural park on the icy continent. Australia – one of the seven countries claim to territorial rights in the Antarctic and the right of veto in the organization of the States Parties to the Antarctic Treaty.
In general, the bloody regime of penguins already worth thinking about the democratization of the continent, especially because the list of territorial claims to the feathered impresses with its diversity. Everything is thoroughly – with flags, coats of arms and the motto bad that there is no New Swabia and the Nazis – it certainly would make the list of these claims, the delicate touch of a schizophrenic – in the style of the recent Finnish Iron Sky.
Basically, in the Antarctic race, along with the countries specified above can enter the United States and Russia (as the successor of the USSR) as start any exploitation of the natural resources of Antarctica – and the commemoration of the world system of international law can already be considered valid. In the meantime, it rattles only on the approaches to the ice continent, but even that is already smacks of war everything thoroughly.
The main problem in the case of Antarctica, as we understand, yet are only supersurovye climatic conditions on the icy continent. While explore and produce oil and gas there is simply unprofitable.
Another situation in the Arctic. The Arctic is melting. And it turned out that a sufficiently shallow polar sea insanely rich in oil and gas:
More than 10 – is more than 10 billion barrels.. In the case of the Barents Sea, the Yamal and Gydan – etoMNOGO more.
As you can see, the basic amounts of hydrocarbons are concentrated in the Russian sector of the continental shelf – in fact – in the framework of the 200-mile exclusive economic zone of Russia. Here, if anything, we can consider all this in more detail.
Bring any claims on deposits in the Kara Sea – Leningrad or Rusanovskoe, the Russian Barents Sea sector – Ice, Ludlovskoe Shtokman or Murmansk field is impossible in principle – in this case the hell flying the entire system of international law, as in the case of Russia – it war, and, most likely, the war is hot and nuclear.
The recent agreement between Norway and Russia, painted with detail here on this map, in fact, put an end to the case of any claims by third countries to Russia on its exclusive economic zone:
Red dots – colonies of sea birds of passage. But we struggled, as we understand, for purple blotches.
According to the results of this agreement controversial area (disputed area) was divided almost in half. Its potential is interesting, but it turns, in fact, around a single object – Fedynskiy dome. Norwegians call it the backbone of Hjalmar Johansen, so patriotic with the Norwegian point of view.
However, even this large potential (it still has not been drilled), the object is divided as a result of this agreement in the ratio? to Norway, and? Russia.
In addition, the agreement on the disputed zone clearly established the principle of sharing cross-border structures – Fedynskiy dome is simply impossible "pump out" From the Norwegian side, "forgetting" at the same time bring it to Russia. Otherwise – see above – the conflict, the system of international law, war, The World’s End.
Exploration Fedynskiy dome will start soon, with not with the Norwegian Statoil, and with italyanskimEni. However, Statoil is also offered to participate in the development of the Barents Sea, also with "Rosneft"But playing the lottery in other promising areas. In general, not converged light wedge on the Shtokman project and all the eggs are not in one basket – you want to produce oil while – will issue you the sites to search for oil. Spent Total and Statoil have about $ 1.5 billion in the Shtokman -. For God’s sake, but if they want to wait until – let wait.
In short, Russia has a problem – how to master the field. Can be tomorrow, the day after tomorrow can be.
The West has a problem – where bldzhd, take the oil? And – it is desirable to have the day before yesterday!
Well, the main battle for the Arctic – is on its way.
Here it is, the last piece of the oil and gas:
It’s all lies beyond the 200-mile economic zone of the Arctic countries. And, if the 200-mile economic zone, which itself had originated spur of the moment in 1960 -, the question of determining the shelf accessories 1970, when the wealth of the shelf became interested in humanity, and recognized by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982 for outside the 200-mile zone it is not so trivial. The UN Convention establishes only 12 miles of sovereign territorial waters and economic zone of 200 miles – with free shipping, but the exclusive rights to the use of mineral and biological resources.
Any country can claim an exclusive economic zone over a length of 200 miles, if it is proved that the shelf from its shores extend beyond this distance. These questions determine the affiliation of the continental shelf beyond the zone itself is still solved by a special commission of the UN Law of the Sea. Unfortunately, the Soviet Union and Canada signed the Convention and is therefore de facto recognized the sovereignty of the United Nations on this issue of maritime law. All historical claims to "polar ownership" Canada and the USSR now, in fact, have the same legal force as the New Swabia. Steers the UN Commission and research – as initially its sovereignty over the shelf is better to prove the geological maps in hand.
Hence, I hope you understand, and stems the interest in the Arctic, in such completely Arctic powers such as China and South Korea – in the case of the Arctic section on the rules of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of the Arctic seas (though this is not the shelf – and vice versa most deep portions!) will be administered by the UN, that is, seems to be a draw. Hence – and a desire to play "Arctic lottery".
After all, the Arctic is melting:
And it melts it from Russia.
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