A detailed look at current Asia

A detailed look at the current Asia

Shares of Asian companies
rose after the US
data on consumer confidence and
industrial orders have strengthened
optimism about the largest economy
world. Metyu Shervud, head
Sydney Investment and Analysis
Agency Perpetual Ltd., said
in an e-mail: “The American
economy strengthens and progresses.
The Fed continues to support monetary
policy. ” According to Sherwood, interest
US rate regulator
will continue to remain at record low
level for at least
two years.

Asia-Pacific
MSCI index added 0.3%
currently traded within 1% of
six-year high.

KOSPI added
0,3%, TOPIX grew by 0.1%. Hang
Seng firmed 0.1% and Shangai
Composite virtually unchanged.

Futures
on S P 500 today is not
change, remaining very high.

what
As for individual companies, Boral
Ltd, an Australian manufacturer
building materials, rose by as much as 4.5%. it
much higher than forecast evaluation. Kawasaki
Kisen Kaisha Ltd, the third largest
consignor in Japan, he added
3.3% on their statements of withdrawal on
10% -s’ dividend in five years.

BYD Co., the manufacturer
electric cars, added 5.8%: China will provide
funding for the construction of peculiar
“Gas stations”, which will be
electric charge.

traditionally,
not bad things in the technology sector.
Thus, the Taiwanese manufacturer of displays
for TVs and smartphones, Innolux
Corp., up 6.8% on their
positive reports. In the third quarter
the company will increase profits by more
complex devices, including displays for
cars and public
use.

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Trader enough to read Twitter to beat market

Trader enough to read Twitter, to beat the market

In a world where information
It is in huge numbers everywhere
and always plentiful, traders are always
trying to make a profit, and constantly
looking for some hidden benefits.
Many of them are betting that 140 characters
– that’s all it takes to beat
market.

some professionals
a lot of money in the world rely on
Twitter and other social media to
gain an advantage in a competitive
struggle. The markets in the past year
spun when someone hacked
Twitter-Account and Associated Press
posted bogus tweets about the explosion in
White House, showing how powerful
It can be power of words and how many millions
USD can lose / earn
almost instantly.

Some with the help of
Twitter always manage to leave behind
a main part of the traders – just
they are always up to date news and global
events, and the velocity of propagation
messages in the network microblogging times
It proved its efficiency and
efficiency. And there is, it turns out,
special programs for tracking
news on Twitter.

"Our systems can
analyze and record this Tweet
less than a second from the time when
he was placed", – says Pol Hotin,
founder of the management company
Investment Cayman Islands
The Atlantic Ocean. "Analysis of
sets of recent data and news on the net
Twitter gives us a distinct advantage
over other investment managers".
The program analyzes the messages in
Twitter, determining the relevance and
the mood in the society and in the market to
time to formalize a deal.

The publication RIA Novosti
also notice a tendency to use
Twitter to traders and participants of the environment
markets. From the latest news on
English version – news that
that investment managers
develop software
for the monitoring of large volumes of tweets
in real time. This allows
to respond to the information before
it reaches the general public.

entrepreneurs and
Traders are also using Twitter, to
keep track of their competitors and identify
the mood of consumers.

In the end, manage
market can also be using Twitter –
Example with fictitious reports of
Explosions in the White House has already been given in
beginning of this article.

Another incident occurred
in March 2013, when the Royal
Caribbean cruise ship arrived in the US
with 105 passengers on board, which
faced with the outbreak of norovirus.
An hour later, after appearing in the headlines
this news the price of shares in Royal Caribbean fell
by 2.9 percent.

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Eurozone dreams and grim reality

Eurozone: dreams and the grim reality

A recent statement by the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi at the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, was of great interest, but the hidden meaning of his remarks was even more striking than many initially thought. If we manage to avoid the disintegration of the euro area, output from the prolonged recession will require increased fiscal deficits, financed by the ECB’s money. The only question is – how this reality will be recognized publicly. Recent economic data have forced politicians to look at the Eurozone serious deflationary risks that were evident at least two years. Inflation stuck well below the target level of annual ECB 2% and GDP stalled. Without decisive policy action Eurozone, like Japan in the 1990s, it will face a lost decade or two painfully slow growth. Until last month, concerns about growth provoked controversial policy proposals. Yens Vaydman, Bundesbank president, has called for higher wages. However, wage growth is not possible without political incentives.

Draghi tried to reduce the rate of the euro at the expense of verbal intervention to increase competitiveness in the region. However, Japan and China also need a competitive exchange rates to boost exports growth and the Eurozone has already accumulated a current account surplus. The German model of growth through exports can not work for the whole euro area as a whole. In some countries, of course, structural reforms are needed to strengthen the growth potential in the long term; However, structural reforms often have a negative impact on short-term growth. The euro area need to boost domestic demand to get rid of excessive debts incurred as a result of the crisis. In countries such as Spain and Ireland, the debt in the private sector have reached unacceptable levels. In other countries, such as Greece and Italy, the national debt was too big, too. To pay the debt, reduced household consumption, business investment and government spending.

However, the simultaneous reduction in the debt burden in the public and private sector is required to limit the demand and growth. Reducing leverage in the private sector in the 1990s, Japan has avoided an even deeper depression, only accumulating a huge public deficit. Therefore, a program of fiscal tightening in the euro zone are doomed to failure. For example, the Italian government has aggressively cut expenditures or raise taxes, the greater the likelihood that its public debt has already exceeded 130% of GDP, reached an unacceptable level. Until recently, the euro area policies deny this reality. Draghi acknowledged this August 22 in Jackson Hole. Without an increase in aggregate demand, structural reforms may be ineffective; and higher demand requires fiscal stimuli, together with the conduct of monetary policy aimed at stimulating growth.

Italian economists, Francesco Dzhiavatstsi and Guido Tabellini explained, which can mean a coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. They offer to cut taxes by 5% of GDP in the next 3-4 years in all countries of the euro area due to the accumulation of public debt in the very long term, which should repay the ECB. They argue that the mere quantitative easing conducted by the ECB, without fiscal easing, would be ineffective. Offers Dzhiavatstsi Tabellini and may require too much stimuli. However, they also raise an important question: how quantitative easing will stimulate the economy? The Bank of England is quantitative easing as a purely monetary policy to support economic growth in the conditions necessary and feasible fiscal consolidation. According to the Bank of England, it works by reducing the medium-term interest rates, increasing the value of assets and the changing preferences of investors, which indirectly stimulates investment and, therefore, demand.

The position of the US Federal Reserve was not so certain. Fed Vice Chairman Stenli Fisher, as well as the former chairman, Ben Bernanke, said that premature fiscal consolidation can hinder recovery after the crisis. Therefore, the Fed indirectly considered quantitative easing, in part, as a means, through the use of which the growth in bond yields can not negate the beneficial effects of large deficits. Position the Fed is more convincing. Fiscal incentives have a direct and strong impact on demand. According to Milton Friedman, they immediately fall into the “current revenue stream.” Only the monetary stimulus do not give immediate results and may cause adverse side effects. Long-term persistence of low interest rates allows unsuccessful companies fight for survival, slowing productivity growth; increasing the value of assets exacerbates inequality; and monetary stimulus are only due to the resumption of growth in private lending, which originally sparked the formation of excess debt.

But if the fiscal stimulus must be accompanied by the purchase of bonds by central banks to prevent an increase in profitability and mitigate concerns about debt sustainability, does not that mean monetary financing of fiscal deficits? The answer depends on whether the regular procurement. In Japan, where the central bank is now owned by government bonds in the amount of 35% of GDP (and this level is rising rapidly), so be it. There is no convincing scenario in which Japan can accumulate a large enough fiscal surplus to pay off a debt: a considerable part will always remain on the balance sheet of the Bank of Japan. Just accepting the offer Dzhiavatstsi and Tabellini would almost certainly lead to a permanent increase in the ECB’s balance sheet.

Whether openly admit this possibility? The argument for this is that otherwise would have intensified fears of a possible payment of the increased government debt, or “withdrawal” from the ECB’s swollen balance, which in turn undermine the stimulating effect of fiscal and monetary coordination. The argument against – moral hazard: if we recognize that moderate deficits, financed by the ECB, is now possible and acceptable, what’s to stop politicians and voters to demand and inflationary large deficits financed by the ECB, in other cases? Of course, high political risks. Consequently, the optimal policy may be accompanied by underhand games; monetary and fiscal “coordination” can mean permanent financial funding, however, open the possibility of never admit. In any case, Draghi strongly promoted this debate forward. Without expanding the role of fiscal policy Eurozone will face a sustained slowdown in growth or a possible decay.

Prepared by Project Syndicate Forexp.ru materials Source: Forexpf.Ru – Forex Market News

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Not all cat Shrovetide Alibaba continues to fall

Not all cat Shrovetide: Alibaba continues to fall

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
lowered their quotes
the second day in a row, as well as all
Chinese stocks listed in the US. it
It comes amid concerns
second over a slowdown in growth
largest world economy.

shares
Alibaba yesterday lost 3%
$ 87.17 in the US
auction. Total progress starting at $ 68,
offered per share
during the IPO, slowed
to 25%.

shares of most
Chinese companies fell after
as the “Beige Book” showed serious
problems of the economy. Meanwhile,
90% Alibaba sales are
namely China.

I recall the first
business day after the IPO
action “Chinese miracle” added
as much as 38%, placing the next record.
Alibaba has become one of
the most valuable companies in the US
exchanges. Timoti Griski, Director
Investment in the company Solaris
Asset Management, said by telephone: “Heath
on the stock exchange is now serving companies,
consumer-oriented
services. And it was at this point
timed Alibaba «performance»,
which, as you might expect,
It turned Incredible! “.

Last week
Alibaba earned $ 21.8
billion – and broke the record for the IPO,
established at the time by another
Chinese debutant – Agricultural
Bank Of China Ltd for 22.1 billion (2010).

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EURGBP pair is stable at 2 year low

EUR / GBP: The pair is stable at 2-year low

On Wednesday, the euro fell against the
pound, once again approaching the two-year
minimum after conditions index
the business environment in Germany declined again
this month, while the European
the central bank once again
He reaffirmed the commitment of the adaptive
monetary policy.

Couple EUR / GBP reached
minimum 0.7828 and was trading at 0.7834,
a decrease of 0.05% during the day. Couple,
It was likely to find support at 0.7809,
the low of September 19 and the weakest since
August 2012 and resistance at
around 0.7875.

Sentiment on the
single currency came under pressure after
addition, a report showed that confidence
business to the German economy weakened
in September, the fifth consecutive month.

The pound was supported,
as investors focused all
focus on monetary prospects
British policy after the Scottish
referendum on independence held
last Thursday.

Euro is stable at
against the dollar, the pair EUR / USD traded
at 1.2848, at the Monday 14-month
minimum 1.2815.

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Asia is trading in red zone in Hong Kong protest

Asia is trading in the red zone: in Hong Kong protest, the Toyota collapsed, in China and Korea – weak statistics

On
trading on Tuesday, Asian markets
range. Investors are wondering
China as an official answer
riots in Hong Kong. Tens of thousands
pro-democracy protesters
We blocked the streets of Hong Kong,
opposition there has been going on
second day. This is one of the most serious
Political protests to Beijing,
since the tragedy at Tiananmen Square
25 years ago.

Unrest
in Hong Kong – an additional complication
for investors against the backdrop of long-standing
worry about how
China’s economy is healthy.

Index
Hang Seng dropped to its
lower its value over the last
3 months, losing in today’s session
0.9%.

Chinese
action is also “scared”, but not so.
Shanghai Composite almost
It has not changed and is about a 19-month
peak.

AT
Japan’s all mixed up: the clarity of the real
economy situation still can not
come. These contradictory:
Unemployment fell in August, and
Retail sales rebounded from the lows,
but plummeted costs
household and industrial
production. Wide Japanese index
Topix retreated from a six-year
highs at 1.3% and the Nikkei lost
0.9%.

South
Korea, too, has reported a decline
the volume of industrial production in August
as much as 3.8%. This is much worse than forecast
values ​​and the biggest drop in Korea
since the global financial crisis
2008. Result – weakening
KOSPI 0.8%.

Among
point loss is worth noting Toyota,
which is weakened to 1.6%
news about the US investigation
cases with the technical fault in
Corolla sedans.

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ECB published results of stress tests

The ECB published the results of stress tests

Yesterday
The ECB published the results of stress tests
130 of the largest banks in the euro zone. AT
“Black list” hit 25 creditors,
who have demonstrated a lack of
vnutrenni financial reserves to
in case of economic crisis. Them
it is recommended to increase its reserves.
However, 12 of the 25 banks that failed
check already remedy the lack of
(Checking lasted clearly not one day,
so it was time for banks).

AT
the list of banks that have not undergone testing,
included banks mainly from the southern regions.
Thus, it Italian 4, 2 Slovenian 2
Greek banks, one from Ireland,
Portugal, Cyprus and Austria. The largest
lack of capital – the Italian Monte
dei Paschi di Siena. He lacks 2110000000
Euro. The lion’s share of other defendants
list have a deficit of less than 1 billion euros.

In
the regular ECB stress tests
it becomes clear how the bank will
to respond to a variety of possible
shocks. Check on Creditors
the flight of investors from the market, minimize
financial reforms, the deterioration of the bank
balance sheets and even a number of other stressful
situations.

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