Ruble goes beyond oil what are future prospects

Ruble goes beyond oil – what are the future prospects?

Ruble for the second day
It shows strong growth – despite
the presence of several positive
reasons, the main thing is growing
in the price of oil.

Remember last
Friday, the Russian ruble was still under
strong pressure – when announced
the decision of the central bank cut its key
rate to 15% and the ruble began to fall sharply
together with dollar reached the level 72.
Analysts then stirred up and
almost began to bury the “wooden”
although in fact the central bank has done all
correctly.

And – lo and behold – reduction
rates in Russia coincided with a new rally
the oil market. By the evening of the oil
Futures rose sharply by almost 7% and
Ruble went after them, and by the end of
Session played all the daily losses.

This week started
very positive for the oil and the ruble – and
at the end of Tuesday’s oil has been trading
at a maximum since the beginning of the year (Brent
It closed at $ 56.98,
investing.com of data).
Ruble, of course, a little behind in
dynamics, but still ahead. While on
he has almost no pressure there, it
say and in the Central Bank. And all
geopolitical and other risks have
laid in the price (and they cost a dollar
are about 15-20 rubles.).

"Here the risks are not purely
economic, geopolitical laid here
risks – namely, strengthening the sanctions,
disconnecting from SWIFT, increased tension
Ukraine, Obama’s statements – that’s all
here. Here, the economy just rubles
16 should be removed from the dollar, and then it was
would normally", – says Alexander
Kareevsky economic commentator.

In the future, it all depends
oil – and here something might happen
anything. As for
long-term forecasts, there is a very
different variants. And one of them – oil
It can grow even up to $ 100,
and up to $ 200 or more per barrel.
The same forecast has recently expressed by the head
OPEC, Mr. Al-Badri: "oil never
It will no longer be worth a hundred dollars …
Because it would cost two hundred
dollars".

And in that case
will the ruble? Some simple calculations give
us the answer – the ruble in the area of ​​17 rubles. behind
dollar. By the way, technical analysis is also
It allows such levels to the national
currency. Now we have to wait to
This prediction came true.

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Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD / USD

AUD/USD, H4

Consider
four-hour graph. Tenkan-sen line is above the Kijun-sen, both of which are horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from the bottom up,
forming an additional signal to buy. Current cloud is still descending.
The pair broke the red and blue lines and seeks to enter into the cloud. The closest
the level of support becomes the Tenkan-sen (0.7791) line resistance is lower
border cloud (0.7841).

Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart
Tenkan-sen line is below the Kijun-sen, the red line is oriented downwards, while the blue
It remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current
cloud – downward. resistance levels are Tenkan-sen line (0.7824) and Kijun-sen (0.7959). Supposed
the level of support – one of the previous line of minima Chinkou Span (0.7590).

Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

Key levels

Support levels:
0.7791, 0.7590.

levels
Resistance: 0.7824, 0.7841, 0.7959.

trading recommendations

on the four-hour
schedule started a trend reversal, but the daily chart we see only
correction. Long positions closest target level becomes 0.7841, then
the pair can rise to the level of 0.7959.

Anastasia Glushkov

Analyst LiteForex Investments Limited

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Gold fell strongly in anticipation of Greek agreement

Gold fell strongly in anticipation of the Greek agreement solutions

On Wednesday morning, the gold
It is trading at about $ 1209.20
– just above yesterday’s close. hope
a compromise between Greece and its
creditors of the third day, weakening demand
for safe assets.

Most likely, futures
Gold support at $ 1201.60, and
Resistance is at $ 1236.70 –
the high of February 16th. Yesterday, gold fell
in price from $ 1233.70
to $ 1204.70 (according to the portal
investing.com), and to
closing futures were at around
$ 1208.60.

According to some
foreign media today from Athens extreme
a period when they can turn to
international creditors with a request for
extension of the current loan agreement
4-6 months. Thus, concern
about the country’s future in the euro zone
moderately reduced.

Recall the current period
Agreement on Greece bailout
ends on February 28 – the country
provided EUR 240 billion. And if
agreement is not extended, the country can
in general remain without money.

Investors are now waiting
any statements from Greece or the EU, and
and Monitor Reports – today should
come out of the last meeting
The Fed, which will give an additional
view on the timing of
rise in US interest rates. Expectation
Rates rise adversely affects
dynamics of the “gold” prices, because
Metal can not compete with
earning assets at growth rates.

At this time, the silver
It is trading at $ 16.428 per troy
ounce. Yesterday, it was trading at around
$ 16.37.

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Oil recovers on strong markets

Oil recovers on strong markets

Oil
It rose more than 1% during the auction
Tuesday: at the time of 17.15 MSK futures
brent c
delivery
in April traded at 60.82 dollars
a barrel (+ 2.14%), a barrel WTI
ask 49.67
dollar (+ 0.16%).

Brent
Today
It grew more than $ 2 before
the way back down below $ 60
a barrel. “Black gold” has recovered
from the biggest drop in the last
month, which occurred yesterday.

competing
forces in Libya today applied to the air
hitting each other: the oil was raised
terminal and airport. This indirectly helped
oil rise to fears of supply c Middle East.

oil
field – the most important target
for opponents in the Libyan conflict.
Force applying for legalization
Islamic State, also targeted
on deposits and pipelines (without
which is unlikely to be able to Education
become economically independent).

By
Analysts say the market remains well
endowed with oil, but the signs
economic growth coming from
Europe and Asia, the promise of world growth
demand and support price
“Black gold”. German data
retail sales were better,
than expected consensus forecast, and
resurgent yen was hit by a peg
the dollar index.

traders
observe also that long-awaited
production decline: Low Price
oil reduces the possibility of investing
in production in the North Sea, Russia
and on US shale. Thus, the number
drilling rigs in the United States on the sly
decreases.

“Oversupply
– questionable, but what we see –
the beginning of a potential rise in prices
oil, “analysts said in an interview
Reuters news agency.

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Ruble collapse if central bank will continue

The ruble collapse, if the central bank will continue to lower interest rates

Russian
the national currency may have to collapse
next week, writes Reuters. In an interview
Portal Investing.com economist for emerging
Markets Capital Economics Liza Ermolenko said,
that if the Russian central bank will reduce
on interest rates, it will have
serious impact on the exchange rate.

“If it will be
biggest drop, say, up to 10% – the ruble,
likely to collapse “, – the expert believes. Following
Russian central bank meeting
will be held March 13 during a meeting
can once again raise the issue of interest
rate.

On Thursday
afternoon to 13:17 MSK on the pair USD / RUB
trading at
61.768, the pair EUR / RUB – on
the level of 68.208, according to the portal investing.com.

experts
confident that the high volatility
the ruble will not change in the near future,
although more recently it has been one of the ruble
the most stable currencies in the emerging
markets. The greatest pressure on the exchange rate
Ruble still have on oil prices,
News of Ukraine and Western sanctions,
analysts say.

Today
Russian investors await reports
Inflation in Russia in February, although the
the data are unlikely to affect seriously on
ruble. “The market often have
idea of ​​the expected level
Inflation, therefore, if there is no
surprises on the ruble is not expected
influence “, – commented Lisa
Ermolenko. analysts predict
at the level of inflation on a monthly basis
2.2% annualized – at the level of 16.7%.

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USDJPY Yen will play dollar part of losses

USD / JPY: Yen will play the dollar part of the losses

Current trend

The US currency continues to strengthen
against all major currencies. In the first half of the month with USD / JPY reached the key resistance level
121.80, but could not overcome it.

The main catalysts for the movement of currencies today
will be on US data. America will publish a decision on the key interest rate,
held a press conference the Fed, and accompanying statements were made by members of the
Committee on the Federal Open Market. Tomorrow, Japan is to publish an index of business
Active in all sectors, and America – the statistics of the labor market. It is unlikely that the Fed
It will raise its key interest rate, and the next promises will not be able
to support the American currency as before. It is most likely that the demand for
the dollar will fall significantly, against this backdrop, the yen may win back some losses.

Support and resistance levels

In the short term the pair may
repelled from the key and the local maximum resistance and 121.90
rush down to the support level 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, 118.15. but it is worth
Note that the trend remains upward, and get involved in short positions is very risky.
In the medium term, the most likely to continue the upward movement, the breakdown
key resistance 121.90 and testing of new local maxima.

Support levels: 120.65, 120.00,
119.50, 118.75, 118.15, 117.00.

Resistance Levels: 121.90, 122.50,
123.00, 123.70.

trading recommendations

It is recommended to put short positions
key level by local maximum resistance and 121.90 short stop loss
and take-profit at the level of 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, 118.15. on descending
corrections relevant to open long positions with profit taking at elevations
123.00, 123.70.

USDJPY Yen will play dollar part of losses

Dmitry Likhachev

analyst LiteForex
Investments Limited

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Conclusions on USD EUR AUD and other of COT report

Conclusions on the USD, EUR, AUD, and the other of the COT report.

Below are the main leader of the COT report on the week, as provided for Scotiabank.

Main topics: USD bullish, holding short positions against the dollar. EUR continues to be a major part of this position, but now the short AUD position is almost the same as the JPY.

EUR Bearish set its $ 24.2bn net short positions of the largest among other currencies.

Investors added a short position on the JPY, GBP, and CHF during the week

CAD is relatively modest compared with $ 5.9 billion of net short positions AUD.

Conclusions on USD EUR AUD and other of COT report

PS: Just do not forget about the free $ 15 in the binary options.

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