Pound fell after trade data from United Kingdom

The pound fell after the trade data from the United Kingdom

The pound fell against the dollar to session lows after the publication of the data, which showed that Britain’s trade balance deficit unexpectedly increased in May.

Now the pair GBP / USD is trading at 1.7119 (day before the data was 1.7134).

Probably will couple
support at Tuesday’s low and 1.7084
resistance at a session high of

The Office for national
Statistics reported that the deficit
UK trade balance in May
increased to? 9.2 billion from the deficit? 8.81
billion in April. economists forecast
deficit? 8.75 billion.

At the same time, exports
rose by 0.6% to? 24.1 billion, while
imports grew by 1.7% – to 33.3 billion?.

Sterling was also lower
against the euro, EUR / GBP pair rose
0.17% to 0.7964.

Today in the euro area
data showed that industrial
production in France, Italy and
Holland fell in May. Data
added to concerns over the outlook for
Economic growth in the region.

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Lb is 1 5 month low

Lb is a 1.5-month low

On Thursday afternoon, the pound fell to a half month lows against the US dollar.

Cause they see in yesterday’s optimistic data from the US. Economic growth continues to support demand for the dollar, although the Fed policy statement limits the rise.

During the morning
European trade, the pair GBP / USD reached
1.6874, the lowest level since June 12. The pair was likely
likely to find support at 1.6790, the low of
June 12 and resistance at 1.6955, the high of

Lb is 1 5 month low

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As Russian sanctions could affect Europe

As Russian sanctions could affect Europe

Russian retaliatory sanctions have caused a lot of debate and discussion, including in Europe. Restrictions apply a fairly narrow range of products, but the producers themselves say about the damage to business.

And the impact varies from country to country, so it is not surprising that the estimate of overall loss is not so simple.

As the sanctions will affect Europe?

The general situation with the volume of agricultural exports to Russia is clear. Total agricultural products accounted for 7% of EU exports, and of this amount, 10% comes from Russia.

This means that the share of agricultural exports in Russia is only 0.7% of the total.

But it is important to remember that this figure by itself does not reflect the impact on the economies of individual countries, so it can not be limited.

With regard to specific countries, the terms of trade with Russia, depending on GDP, exactly hurt the Baltic countries (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia), as well as the losses will face Poland, the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark.

As sanctions affect Russia?

Most likely, for Russian consumers sanctions will translate into higher prices and a reduction in consumer choice.

Russian imports of agricultural products in the amount of about 1.2% of GDP per year, and it’s not much compared to other imported items such as, for example, machinery and equipment.

Russia is traditionally strong in the export of mineral resources and almost self-sufficient in agriculture, but a variety of chemical raw materials and machinery to be imported.

Nevertheless, agricultural production accounts for 13.3% of total imports. This volume is not so easy to replace, but Russia has several options.

Expand domestic production.

Given the natural resources and land at the disposal of Russia, as well as the resources of the state, it is quite possible.

From the standpoint of food security, Russia has been working in this direction.

Expand production with Eurasian counterparts.

As part of the current response to the crisis Russia strengthens ties with neighboring countries and in particular with countries in the Eurasian Union.

Some of these countries have significant agricultural sectors, although unlikely to increase supply to the volumes that are needed in Russia.

Search for partners abroad.

News that Russia is planning to conclude a number of deals with Latin America, abound. In this case Russia will likely also find support in China.

It is obvious that such actions have a negative impact on efforts to improve food security, but it will help to limit the negative economic impact.

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US market in thought

The US market in thought

US stocks
We finished the session in positive territory on Monday,
despite the fact that there remains tense
the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East,
which limits the growth of the US

Economic growth in the
Germany is likely to remain
weak in the coming months, according to
leading indicators published
on Monday, the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development. Data
Paris research organization
suggest that the growth of most
developed economies will remain near
the current level, while the contribution of large
emerging economies in the global
economic growth will be smaller in
compared with the period after the start
The 2008 financial crisis. As a result,
This combination of global growth is unlikely
to significantly accelerate this year.

From the market events today
still waiting:

At 18:00 MSK will be known
the number of open jobs in June.

At 22:00 MSK, there are data
on the value of the Treasury budget in July.
Economists expect the deficit at
previous month.

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Deutsche Bank euro is doomed to fall

Deutsche Bank: the euro is doomed to fall

Currency strategists at Deutsche Bank noted that further euro / dollar decline toward $ 1.25 (to achieve this mark is expected before the end of the year), there is plenty of reasons. The bank pay attention to the weakening of inflationary expectations and the sluggish growth of the euro area economy, the outlook is more clouded after the escalation of the situation in Ukraine. Russian retaliatory measures will have a negative impact on economic activity, the scale remains unclear, and the ECB has started to operate today to be proactive. the euro is not an unexpected decision of the central bank promises no good and only give impetus to the outflow of funds from fixed-income securities, which is already having a negative impact on the dynamics of the currency. In addition, it is noted, and the decline in demand for European action – that of growth in the euro has provided good support during the last twelve months.

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Societe Generale advises to sell pound

Societe Generale advises to sell the pound

Short on the pound / dollar (GBP / USD) still makes sense, analysts say Societe Generale. UK is not subject to a major event risk this week, and the pound was a welcome respite after a Scottish referendum: the alarm last week, in the past, says an expert on macroeconomics Societe Generale Kit Dzhaks. The pound is now trading around $ 1.6314. Sale of the pound against the dollar still makes sense, says Mr. Jax. "As in the euro short-covering was not significant, long-term economic growth prospects are not as bright as they were before", – he said. Source: Forexpf.Ru – Forex Market News

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Spain including prostitution and drug trafficking

Spain including prostitution and drug trafficking in the calculation of GDP

Starting this Thursday,
Spain included in the calculation of GDP
and income from illegal activities – namely, prostitution and drug trafficking.

Thus, speaking
the language of the nominal GDP, prostitution
and drugs will be equal to this
sectors such as education, creative
activity, energy, or

according to
the first assessment carried out by the National
Institute of Statistics (INE), Eurostat,
European statistical agency
Union, through this experiment,
Spanish GDP could increase by 2.7%
4.5%, i.e. in the amount of from 27 to 45 milliardov

Some experts believe
that this initiative will increase the
national wealth by 3%. Education in Spain
is 3.03% of GDP, supply
electricity – 3.7%, oil industry
– 2.6%, agriculture – 2.4%, the
Portal «Bolsamania».

at startup
prostitution and drug trafficking in
economy, Spain will join the
Estonia, Austria, Slovenia, Finland,
Sweden and Norway – countries that
already taxing these activities.

However, if the inclusion of the theory
official statistics so-called
‘Shadow economy’ can play
positive role for the European
countries, some analysts warn
that the initiative will not improve the overall situation.

"Is not
solution to the economic downturn in Europe.
If people are forced to work illegally, it makes no sense to talk about healthy
economic recovery"
, He warned
Athanasios Vamvakidis this summer, the main
a currency strategist at Bank of America Merrill
Lynch in Europe, CNBC reported.

Translated from Spanish: Alice_F

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