January inflation in Russia sharing it with new

January inflation in Russia sharing it with the new Central Bank rate

CPI
prices in Russia increased in January
3.9% – on a monthly basis and by 15% – in
annualized. This was last night said
Rosstat. Analysts had forecast growth
potrebtsen index in January only
2.2% (13.3% – on an annualized basis).

Thus, surprise
as inflation equation
and updated the key rate of the Central Bank was a success,
writes today Reuters. occurs
question – whether the central bank is too early
I lowered the rate?

The head of the central bank
Elvira Nabiullina said that
acceleration of inflation to peak should
only occur in the second quarter,
assuming that for some time the key
rate may be lower than the actual
inflation: "Even if inflation
above 15%, then, in our opinion, it will be on
short period. And the rate of 15% for this
period is normal. I remind you that when
we had a rate of 5.5 percent, it
while inflation was lower.
The rate may at some point become
below inflation", – said Nabiullina.

Inflation 15%, e.g.
very surprised Vladimir Osakovsky
from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as Reuters writes.
"Very interesting data, inflation
at the level of rates, which is very risky,
in terms of what it creates preconditions
for policy tightening. But given
Nabiullina words, the big question – how
long they are willing to admit it"-
he said.

Central Bank of Russia reduced
its key interest rate from 17% to 15%, explaining that
the fact that the risks are very strong cooling
economy prevail over inflationary
risks.

Analysts at Capital
Economics expect the peak of inflation in the second quarter
at the level of 17.5%: "While oil prices
Ruble frozen and remains stable
a further increase in inflation can not
prevent the Central Bank to reduce
interest rates on"- says
Liza Ermolenko of Capital Economics.

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Headline News

Headline News

– Greek Prime Minister Tsipras “very optimistic” after a meeting with Merkel, Hollande and Juncker at the EU summit, declared that “we can make a formal announcement soon.” Ekathimerini reports that Tsipras held “constructive and positive” talks with Merkel, came to an agreement on the objectives of deficit and privatization, but no other “key aspects” in the framework of the Eurogroup .Peregovory continue next week. EU representative Dombrovskis less optimistic, said on German TV that “progress is not good,” he sees no possibility of coming to an agreement this month, but possibly in May. Merkel said that everything should be done in order to prevent Greece remain without money. At today’s meeting of the Eurogroup Greece will not be the main issue, the Minister of Finance of Latvia curled Reirs. Bloomberg poll shows that the probability of a Greek exit from the euro zone estimated audience of 30%. Most economists believe that Greece could default and remain in the Eurozone.

– The representative of Japan’s ruling party Yamamoto said that the Bank of Japan may increase incentives next week, as the economy slows down. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country is no longer in a state of deflation, expects that the Bank of Japan to fully meet its mission of monetary easing. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said that the trend in inflation is gradually improving.

– PricewaterhouseCoopers warns about the risk of a sharp increase in bad debts in China amid slowing economic growth. China National Development and Reform Commission said that large-scale infrastructure projects will be accelerated, the frequency of monetary policy changes to increase.

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EURUSD dollar fell after announcement of US trade

EUR / USD: the dollar fell after the announcement of the US trade balance report

Balance
US trade balance in March increased
43.1%. According to analysts, the deficit
the foreign trade balance of the country was to be increased
to $ 41.2 billion,
however, it rose by $ 15.5
billion – by 43.1%, to $ 51.37 billion – compared with the revised
data in February (February figure
revised upward to
$ 35.4 billion to
$ 35.89 billion).
These data provided the Bureau today
Ministry of Economic Analysis
US Department of Commerce.

analysts
Reuters had expected,
that the trade deficit
The United States will increase to $ 41.2
billion. The trade balance shows
the difference in the amount of exports and
of imported goods is the
a major component of the balance of payments
countries.

data on
exports are usually given the opportunity to
an idea of ​​the development
USA. Due to the fact that foreigners should
buy the domestic currency to pay for
the country of export, it strongly influences
dollar. When the above index
expected, the market usually reacts
positively if the figures are lower than expected,
most often fix the negative / bearish
the market for the dollar.

So now, after
announcement index EUR / USD pair
I went into growth, thus
the dollar is losing its position: to 15:53 ​​MSK
the pair is trading at 1.1172 –
the high of today’s session. Now
EUR / USD pair is trading
at the level of 1.1151.

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China is opposed to Fed to raise rates in near

China is opposed to the Fed to raise rates in the near future

Time to improve
key interest rates in the United States has not yet come,
given the difficult situation in the world
economy, – said Minister of Finance
Lu Tszivey of China in an interview
edition of China Business News. "United
States have not yet reached the transition point
to raise interest rates, and due to
its international responsibility
they can not raise rates"-
the minister said.

Lu Tszivey sure
The United States should be aware of "a responsibility
on a global scale" for their actions,
because the dollar is the main
reserve currency in the world. But developed
Ministers accused the world
weaknesses – their alleged economic growth
It is too slow and they do not
create a sufficient demand.

By the way, members of the management
The Fed is still going to raise rates
end of this year. "And the timing of the first
hike, and further
adjustment of benchmark rates
Federal funds will depend heavily on
from future developments in the economy"-
He said vice-president of the US
central bank Stenli Fisher. In his opinion,
the US economy is not yet creating enough
jobs to move to
maximum employment and inflation.

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Dow Jones indexes from exclude Volkswagen shares

Dow Jones indexes from exclude Volkswagen shares

stocks automobile
Volkswagen Group decided to exclude from the
calculation of sustainable development indices
Dow Jones because “diesel scandal”. AT
Specifically, the paper is no longer of concern
will mean in the DJSI indexes lists
World, DJSI Europe since 6 October. By the way, the index
DJSI World launched in 1999, it tracks
stocks of companies that believe the best
for economic and long-term
US environmental standards.

In mid-September
scandal began with cars Volkswagen,
when the Environmental Protection Agency
US accused the carmaker environment
falsifying test results to
emission level of harmful substances in
the company cars. companies face
a fine of $ 18 billion, the US Justice Department started a criminal
investigation, the head of Volkswagen Martin
Winterkorn resigned.

The company’s shares in the first
scandal the day collapsed by 23%, then fall
continued.

Now VW will no longer be
defined as an industry leader
group “vehicles and components”
analysts say. Volkswagen shares fell
a further 0.74% on Tuesday, deepening general
loss per annum to 47%.

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Hedge funds are tied for dollar’s decline

Hedge funds are tied for the dollar’s decline

On Friday, the US dollar fell to a 10-month low, ending a week with the worst result since May, as economic indicators fell short of forecasts, and thus sown among the serious concerns of market participants about the prospects of further tightening of Fed policy this year. Analysts have different banks, including Mizuho and Wells Fargo, believe that in connection with the upcoming meeting of the ECB’s monetary policy dollar could fall even more. The euro last week stimulus boost to growth through the news that ECB President Mario Draghi will visit in August, the US Federal Reserve symposium: talking about the fact that Draghi will take advantage of this opportunity to give a signal about its future plans in respect of realized ECB bond purchase program. In addition, last week, the Bank of Canada for the first time in nearly seven years, has upped the ante, led to strong growth in the Canadian dollar, and it also served as a stark reminder of the markets that other world of the Central Bank will overtake Fed also starting to enter the path of tightening.

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