EURUSD is trading at two year lows

EUR / USD is trading at two-year lows

again committed to 26-month lows
recent days (remember, last Friday
It was marked by at least August 2012,
1.2356). Now, the pair is trading at 14.03 MSK
at 1.2410, losing 0.5%
with yesterday.

regained his advantage because
that weak Friday statistics
data led investors to lock
Profit: accordingly, the demand for
US currency rose.

at the end of last week again confirmed
that he is ready to take even the most daring
measures to stimulate the economy
eurozone, but since then nothing again
Did not happen. EU prospects clouded
Yesterday, after the extremely weak Italian
Statistics: it seems that Italy inexorably
slipping into recession. inflation
region does not show any sort of
indication that it intends to
closer to the target level of 2%, and
range of 0.2 – 0.3%. In short,
the euro now accounts for a hard time.

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Wheel – scalper traded during the day.

With? Ovetnik configured to run on the currency pair USDCHF M15 period.

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  • autoLots – automatic detection of the lot size.
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Russia will not cut oil production to support

Russia will not cut oil production to support prices

“Oil king” said the country
will not cut production to
support prices. This Evening News
placed edition of The Wall
Street Journal, right in front of
OPEC summit to be held in

Speaking after the meeting,
with representatives of the largest
oil companies, on Tuesday
Igor Sechin, the chief executive
Director of OJSC “Rosneft”, he said
The current price of oil "is not
critical for us". He also added,
Russia can not just cut
oil production, unlike manufacturers

OPEC summit on Thursday
officials gather to discuss
possible options for
reduce by 30% in oil prices since the summer of
of the year. Russia is not an OPEC member,
but price cuts hurt its economy
and the national currency has pushed strongly

Minister of foreign
Venezuelan Minister Rafael Ramirez said,
that the participants of the meeting on Tuesday, on the
who were also senior officials
officials from Saudi Arabia and Mexico,
you said "his vision of the market"but
We agreed that the current price is too
low. "All worried about the price".
– he told reporters afterwards.

Despite the statement
Mr. Sechin, the OPEC meeting, probably
It will be one of the most important in recent
years for the Kremlin, because failure
support for oil prices may cause
a serious blow to Russia’s economy and
its currency. The ruble has weakened by about a third
against the US dollar this year
against the backdrop of Western sanctions and falling prices
oil. Low price cost economy
the country about $ 100 billion this year, he said
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in
Monday. The economic growth
projected at not more than 0.5%
this year.

"If OPEC decides
decision to cut production or make
it will have no influence, ruble
may fall further, raising the level of
inflation and anxious mood"-
sure Kris Uifer, a senior partner
Moscow consulting Macro

Bloomberg recently quoted
Sechin, who said that, they say, not Russia
You will need to cut production, even if
oil prices fall to $ 60 a barrel.
He said that Rosneft may delay
some capital-intensive projects, and she
already cut production in a small
the amount for reasons of efficiency.
In an interview broadcast on Monday
on state television, the Minister
Russian Energy Alexander Novak
He said Russia will keep
stable exports in the coming
some years. "This is our contribution to
stabilization of the situation on world markets
oil", – he said.

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News of day

news of the day

Today will be full
Economic statistics and fundamental events. Eurozone countries will publish
December data on the volume of industrial production will be released in the January US
statistics on retail sales. UK will catechumens quarterly report
Bank of England’s inflation, as the head of the British regulator Mark Karni will speak with

The indicator of industrial production
It reflects the amount of
of manufactured industrial products and utilities in the eurozone.
It is expected that this figure and in monthly and annual terms
demonstrate increase, from 0.2% to 0.3% and from 0.4% to 0.3%, respectively,
will have a positive impact on the euro.

Published in the January statistics on the US
retail sales volume is no less important than European. this indicator
It characterizes the level of consumer demand and spending, and constitutes a significant
share of the national GDP. Here forecasts are not so positive. It is expected that January
Retail sales in the US will be reduced again to 0.4-0.5%, which is less than the December
drop by 0.9%, but still is an indication of deterioration of the economic situation.
Low inflation puts pressure on the consumer demand that can
a negative impact on the US currency.

Also today, it is worth paying attention to
quarterly report of the Bank of England on inflation and on the performance of the bank head Mark
Carney. Recently, the state of inflation does not please investors in the United Kingdom:
in December, the consumer price index for the first time fell to 0.5%, which made
Mark Carney talk about the postponement of interest rate rises. Today, he can shed
light on the future of the British monetary policy.

Based on the totality of the economic
factors during the day is expected to strengthen the European
currency. In particular quotation EUR / USD pair may rise to levels of 1.1350 and 1.1400.

News of day

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Of MSCI Emerging Markets index perhaps stricken

Of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, perhaps stricken Russia

Today MSCI
circulated that the message
economic news from Russia can
cause exclusion from the country
the composite index of emerging markets.

In order to
it happened, the Russian authorities
will be enough to enter the control
movement of capital and operations in
currency, violating the criterion of freedom of inflow
and capital outflows. If this freedom
No – the country can not by definition
included in the list of emerging markets.

In this case
classification MSCI Russia
It will be referred to as Standalone
Market, which does not belong to any
existing group.

decision will be made based on the results
extensive consultation with investors.

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In Venezuela wants to create unified system of

In Venezuela, wants to create a unified system of three exchange markets

yesterday President
Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro announced that
The country has created a single currency system,
which will consist of three exchange
markets for the different needs of the state
and individuals, including the will

According to him,
The official dollar rate still
It will be held at the level of 6.3 bolivar,
that is calculated for food
and health services. But now
will still function system
Sicad-1, intended for the purchase of currency
importers at a reduced rate.

Sicad-2 system, where the application for purchase
currency could do all the physical
person actually converted to the exchange.
“This is a new system in the auction
which may involve both
public and private sector,
it will work through the system
public and private exchanges “, –
Maduro said, speaking in front of Parliament.

The president
added that the presence and work of three
currency markets will be in Venezuela
a temporary solution until you improve
The situation with the country’s economy.

In the last 10
years, the country has strict limits
the purchase and sale of foreign currency by physical
and legal entities. Free exchange bolivars
and get dollars at the official
the course was an individual is impossible,
and legal persons had
use a complex system of purchase
currency auctions. official exchange rate
dollar at the same time dozens of times different
of course on the black market.

A pair of VEF / USD
(Venezuelan bolivar / US
USD), according to,
It is trading at 0.2327 to the October 6

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Depreciation of currency panacea or path into

The depreciation of the currency – a panacea or a path into the abyss?

Global financial top leaders Tuesday
at a meeting of G-20 actually recognized
depreciation of currency tool
stimulate growth and warned that they would support
the aggressive policy of “easy money”
aimed at strengthening the fragile world
economy. Policy of mass monetary liberalization
support is now the finance ministers
and the heads of central banks of almost
all G-20. Policy that
weakened exchange rates everywhere – from
Europe to Japan, is fundamentally contrary to
the traditional notion that
currency depreciation – of course
negative effect.

But it is much more concern on
that the economic system more
part of the world can get stuck in a ditch
low growth, if not to do decisive
investment in them by
central banks. profound structural
change is needed now the economy
all the major industrialized countries
after years of short-term, temporary
programs to stimulate growth.

“It seemed, at the meeting of ministers in Istanbul
Finance tried to ease tensions
each other’s position on the devaluation
vying repeating that it all – for
common good “, – said Saymon Dzhonson,
Lecturer School of Management

Chinese deflation, European QE and the strong dollar problem

The announcement of the international support
“Convenient principles of monetary policy”
as the official position of the G-20
followed after that, as China
announced that only 0.8% growth
Consumer prices in January. This is the
slow growth in five years. reaction
the international community began to fear
that China can slide towards deflation.
Central Bank of China was immediately
It recommended to reduce the base
interest rates and expand credit

China, with its huge export
industrial goods, faces
Now with the presence of excess capacity:
the world consumption is reduced due to
the global economic slowdown.
Therefore, the “price of the goods delivered
China is becoming less smoothly
dribbling down and, of course, negatively
impact on global inflation, ”
– said economist Wei CIB
Yao in an interview for Societe Generale.

The most striking link between policy
the central bank and exchange rates
recorded in Europe. The January
the ECB to start buying
public and private assets on
amounting to more than 1 trillion euros caused
a steep decline in the purchasing power of the euro
against the US dollar.

But the dollar’s rise to a decade
peaks caused problems in the Congress:
there were discussed currency manipulation,
taken in other countries, and their
impact on US exports and
competitiveness. On Tuesday
US lawmakers have even
a draft law which
It will allow the federal government
impose penalties on liabilities
imports from countries financial system
which is manipulative.

However, administration officials now!
US seems to have come to the conclusion that
any retarding effect on the gain
The dollar is still more than compensated
the rapid growth of the world’s largest

“The world economy can not quickly
go, if it has only one
normal wheel, even if the wheel
– the United States, “- said Treasury Secretary
USA Dzheykob Lyu, who attended
at the G20 meeting, together with
Fed Chairman Janet Yellen.

Search panacea: "demolish the money for the common good"

Seven years after the World
It brought down the global financial crisis
economic system, G-20 and
still trying to find the right
recipe for a kind of panacea

At the global level is not enough
profits from plummeting oil prices
and growth in the world’s largest economy
(USA). It does not help to get out of the pit
Europe and Japan. Meanwhile, the main
emerging markets (eg China)
also slowed down. This added pressure
to central banks: they vied with each increase
incentive programs due to
lower rates or printing new portions
money to generate new loans and
increased costs.

A side effect of this activity –
decrease in exchange rates, particularly the euro
and the yen and the upward pressure on the currency
traditional “quiet corners” (to
example, in Swiss Franc), and such
countries like the US, which is expected to
This year will tighten monetary

“If this policy is implemented
on a large scale, it will devalue your
currency – it is most definitely ”
– says one of the high-ranking officials

Of course, no one offers directly
“Derail the yen or the euro for growth
the world economy. ” “There is a clear
agreement on the fact that the principles
monetary policy designed
exclusively for resolving internal
problems – for example, to achieve
inflation target, “- he says
Christian Noyer, head of the French
regulator. – “However, the differences in
parameters of monetary policy settings
in different central banks and may cause
strong currency fluctuations. ”

A number of reports showed yesterday
alignment of consumer prices or
even their decline in many key
economic systems. therefore
weaken central banks around the world
monetary policy, the maximum
liberalizing it.

What is so bad low inflation?

She, of course, beneficial effects on the
households. But if prices remain
low for too long, they can harm
the economy, increasing costs
loan servicing and making it less
attractive for companies trying
invest capital in it. Therefore, most
central banks of the world considers the target
inflation rate of 2%.

And another problem: the feeling that
stick in the wheel controller is inserted
government, which, through tax
policy and economic reforms have
more pressure on leaders
central banks.

Report of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development showed that
many of its members in recent years,
do not make legal and financial
steps to ensure that restructure their
economic systems, and without it in
the current environment is not enough.

Ian Talley and Brian Blackstone, for the Wall Street Journal. Translation – Anomalia

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