Why you should not invest in emerging markets
Howard R. Gold, MarketWatch The columnist, provides a completely idyllic picture of good old developed markets and warns us from having to invest in developing the economy. Arguments are extremely unpretentious, and to all appearances, the man Well very seriously believes in his country. A true patriot – a rarity. I propose a paraphrase of his column – in defiance of the harsh warnings that I cited to you a few days ago, here comrade strongly believes in the inviolability of the mother-America.
pot of leprechaun
since the spring, emerging market stocks
(RR) showed a very tricky rally. Central
“Growing” share grew from 6.1%
the beginning of April, while the average
US companies added share
3.6% (according TrimTabsResearch Research).
We responded to this in the same way as usual:
pursuing their own benefit. After
how the stock markets of developing
countries gain by selling at $ 11.6 billion
From January to March, “actually flow
I began to turn in the wrong direction. AT
Recently, investors bought
emerging markets “, says CEO
Director David TrimTabs Sanchi.
I have the feeling that they are like little children believe in a pot of leprechaun, which is where the rainbow ends. A pot of such does not exist.
Miracles do not exist
I wrote a lot, people invest
invest in emerging markets, more
all using a false premise
It leads to a corresponding gain
the stock market). And as shown
practice, the stock market and its movements
are not directly related
to GDP growth.
of mutual funds and stocks in their PP
the vast majority belong to
BRICS countries, three of which are now
They are in the process of “bear” market.
Only India is still in
long-term trends in the step increase.
American is a huge debt burden,
and the Fed’s decision to buy securities in large quantities
paper – all this has prompted many
investors to exchange the US
securities to shares of developing
markets, the principles of currency policy
which are considered to be “more than adequate”.
And it seems to me fundamentally wrong.
shares significantly outperformed the “developing”
in the last 2, 3 or even 5 years. This should not
be a surprise for you. And many more
Investors have seen during this
time that emerging markets
– not such a good idea, some
It seems at first.
About proper use of opportunities
before leading three this year
Experts on securities – Elroy
Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of
London Business School – built
new index of long-term results
PP. They found that the markets of developed
countries win “developing” peers,
show from 1900 to 2013, the average growth in
8.3% (versus 7.7%). From this harmonious picture
knocked out only the 1950s that
given the 12.5% growth in developing countries
compared with 10.8% in their colleagues developed.
PP also possess enormous instability.
In the ten years of their standard
deviation is 23.9, which is 30% higher
than the developed equity markets and 60% more
unstable than the index of S P
article was published in BlackRock,
which tells of an interesting
study. Top 10 were considered
emerging economies and
revealed that since 1992 their stock
markets on average use only
73% growth of the GDP of their respective countries. So, if
the economy grew, say, 8% a year, it
stock market returns to investors
the correlation between growth and market
efficiency significantly “walks”
from country to country: from the optimistic
90% in India, Korea, South Africa and Indonesia
to disappointing 24% in Thailand and 29% in China
over the past 22 years old.
Recently, the situation is even
tragic. 10 leading PP used
only accidents 18% growth in its GDP
countries over the past five years. Not surprising,
so that they are seriously off track. And
there is no equal to China. Celestial
I managed to drop their index MSCI
by 18.6%, while GDP grew by
1.600%. In other words, one dollar invested
in 1992 in the MSCI China Index,
in 2012 it was worth 87 cents. At the same
while boring old S P 500
during the same period tripled.
happened to the “Chinese miracle” that
so persistently advertised on Wall Street
fall after studying 46 world markets
it was found that the average correlation
between long-term GDP growth and
long-term promotional profit was
NULL. Just think about it.
ask: what correlates train
with stock market gains? The answer is:
growth of earnings per share (EPS),
and nothing more. Any financial textbook
will tell you that the current stock price
It reflects dividends or cash,
she presumably will bring
tomorrow. And this estimate is more or less
reliable basis is only possible on
reliable and efficient markets, such
as the United States or possibly Europe.
how do investors need to make a profit
of the fastest growing economies
the world? Nothing special, we read
Corporation developed market produce
a significant part of the economic
growth in PP systems. ” 15% of income and growth
namely emerging markets, supporting
thus their economy.
My advice: what to throw a lot of money
dangerous and unstable PP when
you can get the same income, putting
their money is much closer to home?
Howard R. Gold. Translation – Odillia.
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