Ruble goes beyond oil what are future prospects

Ruble goes beyond oil – what are the future prospects?

Ruble for the second day
It shows strong growth – despite
the presence of several positive
reasons, the main thing is growing
in the price of oil.

Remember last
Friday, the Russian ruble was still under
strong pressure – when announced
the decision of the central bank cut its key
rate to 15% and the ruble began to fall sharply
together with dollar reached the level 72.
Analysts then stirred up and
almost began to bury the “wooden”
although in fact the central bank has done all
correctly.

And – lo and behold – reduction
rates in Russia coincided with a new rally
the oil market. By the evening of the oil
Futures rose sharply by almost 7% and
Ruble went after them, and by the end of
Session played all the daily losses.

This week started
very positive for the oil and the ruble – and
at the end of Tuesday’s oil has been trading
at a maximum since the beginning of the year (Brent
It closed at $ 56.98,
investing.com of data).
Ruble, of course, a little behind in
dynamics, but still ahead. While on
he has almost no pressure there, it
say and in the Central Bank. And all
geopolitical and other risks have
laid in the price (and they cost a dollar
are about 15-20 rubles.).

"Here the risks are not purely
economic, geopolitical laid here
risks – namely, strengthening the sanctions,
disconnecting from SWIFT, increased tension
Ukraine, Obama’s statements – that’s all
here. Here, the economy just rubles
16 should be removed from the dollar, and then it was
would normally", – says Alexander
Kareevsky economic commentator.

In the future, it all depends
oil – and here something might happen
anything. As for
long-term forecasts, there is a very
different variants. And one of them – oil
It can grow even up to $ 100,
and up to $ 200 or more per barrel.
The same forecast has recently expressed by the head
OPEC, Mr. Al-Badri: "oil never
It will no longer be worth a hundred dollars …
Because it would cost two hundred
dollars".

And in that case
will the ruble? Some simple calculations give
us the answer – the ruble in the area of ​​17 rubles. behind
dollar. By the way, technical analysis is also
It allows such levels to the national
currency. Now we have to wait to
This prediction came true.

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ING On ruble affects approximation of tax period

ING: On the ruble affects an approximation of the tax period

Having lost to the dollar about 0.7% on yesterday’s close, the ruble became an outsider among the major EMEA currencies. But amid the drop in oil prices to $ 61-62 / bbl to yesterday’s lows of $ 58 / bbl this loss seem insignificant. As a result, the main pressure in oil prices was broadcast predominantly in a lower ruble price of raw materials. Support to the ruble had massive sales from exporters, who confidently closed the continued demand for the currency. Probably affects the approach of the tax period, according to the chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS Dmitry Polevoy. We also note that the options market in recent days resumed decline in implied volatility (from 35-40% to 29-33% for a period of 1 to 12 months.), Suggesting further stabilization of expectations in the ruble. Such dynamics improves the attractiveness "hedge" risks in the ruble. Central Bank will hold two auctions of foreign currency loans secured by rights claims in dollars for a period of 28 and 365 days, with a limit of $ 4 billion., And $ 1 billion. And min. rates ranging from 0.9235% to 1.4209%. Judging by the dynamics of the spread between the interest rate securities and swaps, which yesterday remained in the red, short-term shortage of dollar liquidity in the market is not observed.

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Ruble collapse if central bank will continue

The ruble collapse, if the central bank will continue to lower interest rates

Russian
the national currency may have to collapse
next week, writes Reuters. In an interview
Portal Investing.com economist for emerging
Markets Capital Economics Liza Ermolenko said,
that if the Russian central bank will reduce
on interest rates, it will have
serious impact on the exchange rate.

“If it will be
biggest drop, say, up to 10% – the ruble,
likely to collapse “, – the expert believes. Following
Russian central bank meeting
will be held March 13 during a meeting
can once again raise the issue of interest
rate.

On Thursday
afternoon to 13:17 MSK on the pair USD / RUB
trading at
61.768, the pair EUR / RUB – on
the level of 68.208, according to the portal investing.com.

experts
confident that the high volatility
the ruble will not change in the near future,
although more recently it has been one of the ruble
the most stable currencies in the emerging
markets. The greatest pressure on the exchange rate
Ruble still have on oil prices,
News of Ukraine and Western sanctions,
analysts say.

Today
Russian investors await reports
Inflation in Russia in February, although the
the data are unlikely to affect seriously on
ruble. “The market often have
idea of ​​the expected level
Inflation, therefore, if there is no
surprises on the ruble is not expected
influence “, – commented Lisa
Ermolenko. analysts predict
at the level of inflation on a monthly basis
2.2% annualized – at the level of 16.7%.

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USDJPY Yen will play dollar part of losses

USD / JPY: Yen will play the dollar part of the losses

Current trend

The US currency continues to strengthen
against all major currencies. In the first half of the month with USD / JPY reached the key resistance level
121.80, but could not overcome it.

The main catalysts for the movement of currencies today
will be on US data. America will publish a decision on the key interest rate,
held a press conference the Fed, and accompanying statements were made by members of the
Committee on the Federal Open Market. Tomorrow, Japan is to publish an index of business
Active in all sectors, and America – the statistics of the labor market. It is unlikely that the Fed
It will raise its key interest rate, and the next promises will not be able
to support the American currency as before. It is most likely that the demand for
the dollar will fall significantly, against this backdrop, the yen may win back some losses.

Support and resistance levels

In the short term the pair may
repelled from the key and the local maximum resistance and 121.90
rush down to the support level 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, 118.15. but it is worth
Note that the trend remains upward, and get involved in short positions is very risky.
In the medium term, the most likely to continue the upward movement, the breakdown
key resistance 121.90 and testing of new local maxima.

Support levels: 120.65, 120.00,
119.50, 118.75, 118.15, 117.00.

Resistance Levels: 121.90, 122.50,
123.00, 123.70.

trading recommendations

It is recommended to put short positions
key level by local maximum resistance and 121.90 short stop loss
and take-profit at the level of 120.00, 119.50, 118.75, 118.15. on descending
corrections relevant to open long positions with profit taking at elevations
123.00, 123.70.

USDJPY Yen will play dollar part of losses

Dmitry Likhachev

analyst LiteForex
Investments Limited

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Moscow Exchange began trading futures on Chinese

Moscow Exchange began trading futures on the Chinese yuan

According to
Exchange press service, starting from 17 March
trading in futures on the currency pair
“China’s yuan-ruble» – CNY / RUB. By
According to representatives of the Moscow Stock Exchange,
launch a new futures trading explained
increase in the volume of trading on the yuan
exchange, growth exchange transactions of yuan-ruble
on the Russian currency market and
forming demand operation
Hedging of foreign trade contracts
between Russia and China.

Last year,
yuan trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange
increased 8 times – up to 395 billion rubles
(48 billion yuan). Most
exchange operations was in October 2014
year – amounting to 541 million yuan.

The fact that the run
futures trading on the yuan, the exchange said last Thursday. Period of execution
futures – 15th of March, June, September
and December.

"We expect that the new
tool will be liquid, it takes
a worthy place in the line of emergency
Moscow Exchange contracts, as well as
will increase
trade turnover between Russia and China".
– said deputy chairman Andrei Exchange
Chemetov.

Currently,
the futures market of the Moscow Stock Exchange traded currency futures ten: USD / RUB, EUR / RUB, EUR / USD,
AUD / USD, GBP / USD, USD / JPY, USD / CHF, USD / UAH, USD / CAD, USD / TRY.

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Head of Bank of Japan sees no signs of currency

The head of the Bank of Japan sees no signs of currency war

Chapter
Japanese regulator on Friday rejected
opinion that the general fashion
central banks in the monetary program
stimulation due to “currency
war. ” He does not notice the competitive
exchange rate devaluation.

Central banks
all over the world, including Asian
Japan’s neighbors – South Korea and India –
following in the footsteps of Japan and the eurozone, weakening
its monetary policy for
stimulation of slow growth.

Kuroda
He noted that he sees no sign
tension between developed and
emerging economies in terms of
movements in exchange rates. He does not feel
much excitement over the fact that
many countries are rushing to devalue
their currencies to gain at their expense
exports a competitive advantage.

“Monetary
Fed policy, the Bank of Japan and the ECB aims
to achieve a single goal –
price stability, rather than the fact that
derail its own currency “, – says
Kuroda, paying no attention to the freshest
example – the euro to fall to 12-year-old
low against the dollar on this
week after the launch of QE program
from the ECB.

Head
pain emerging economies
adds two divergent policy
the main central banks of the world – and the Fed
ECB. It creates unpredictable
perpendicular to each other flow
on world markets. Kuroda noted that
central banks, including the Bank of Japan,
can learn much from the Fed’s exit
of the incentive program. but
head of the Japanese regulator stressed
that he himself will sustain its
huge stimulus program and
even expand it with features of appearance
changes in the upward price trend.

On
These statements and internal news
Yen slightly passed the positions against
Dollar: USDJPY at the moment
11.18 MSK trading at 120.90?.

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Euro second day grows on statistics from Germany

Euro second day grows on statistics from Germany

The euro rose
today in European trading to $ 1.10,
but now (to 17.30 MSK) again rolled
to the level of 1.0971. On Wednesday, the driver lifting
the single currency again, like yesterday, was
Germany. Today came here optimistic
data on business sentiment that
added optimism to investors for
economic recovery in the euro area.
IFO indicator for March
It was higher than the consensus forecast and
It showed the strongest value for
the last 8 months.

but traders
predict that the 1,1-trillionth
QE program launched
ECB in March, most likely, will put pressure
the single currency and will not let her go
in a long rally.

“The German data
certainly encouraging, but I do not think
they will change much in the fate of the euro
in the near future “, – he says
Peter Kinsella, currency strategist
Commerzbank. – “ECB started
print money, and upward movement of the euro
– a temporary phenomenon. I doubt that
these his achievements will be saved. ”

Meanwhile
investors cut long positions
dollar after the “dovish” Fed speeches
last week, the currency moved away from
multi-year highs, and continues to
slowly go down. At 17.39 MSK pair
USDJPY fell to 119.59?,
GBPUSD
rose to
1.4872.

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