How to read minutes of Fed

How to read the minutes of the Fed

columnist
MarketWatch explains how to
interpret today’s report –
the publication of minutes of the Fed. AT
October we heard the policy statement
from the Federal Reserve,
which proved to be a hawk – in no small
not least because the central bank
The United States did not flinch in the face of the growing
worries about pretty hard
low inflation.

The Fed has kept
himself a stiff upper lip, her application was next
content: “Although inflation in the short
term, is likely to go down
due to lower energy prices
and other factors in the FOMC consider that
the probability of inflation below 2% for some
decreased since the beginning of this year,".

economists
They want to see the minutes of the meeting to
understand whether some of the officials,
who was interested in it, either
someone suggested another solution.

One of
leading "pigeons" committee – President
Minneapolis Fed Narayana Kocherlakota –
I was concerned about the information on the inflation rate, which does not
He confirmed political statements.
He said that the medium-term outlook
inflation did not show any improvement
since December last year, and “perhaps,
It has become even worse. ”

Guy Berger,
US economist at RBS Securities, said that
it would be interesting to see whether there is a
others who do not wish to be reconciled with the general opinion – he shared the concern
Kocherlakota. It is important to know, because
What if most politicians
concerned about the low inflation, they can
be more likely to hold steady
state longer, even if the labor market
It continues to improve at a faster,
than-expected pace, Berger said.

The Fed will publish
the minutes of its meeting of 28-29 October
today at 22:00 MSK. Now markets
follow the latest government data
for the construction of new housing – economists
MarketWatch The respondents, predict that
the pace of construction of new housing
virtually unchanged in October,
rising to an annual rate of up to 1.03 million from 1.02 million in September. recent
the pace of construction is considerably lower
the average rate of 1.5 million over the last
20 years – until 2006, when was the peak of the bubble
the real estate market.

Fed closely
monitors and the housing market, because
officials are trying to avoid rebound
market. The last statement of the central
the bank said that the recovery
housing sector "It remains slow."

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News of day

news of the day

Today will be full
Economic statistics and fundamental events. Eurozone countries will publish
December data on the volume of industrial production will be released in the January US
statistics on retail sales. UK will catechumens quarterly report
Bank of England’s inflation, as the head of the British regulator Mark Karni will speak with
statement.

The indicator of industrial production
It reflects the amount of
of manufactured industrial products and utilities in the eurozone.
It is expected that this figure and in monthly and annual terms
demonstrate increase, from 0.2% to 0.3% and from 0.4% to 0.3%, respectively,
will have a positive impact on the euro.

Published in the January statistics on the US
retail sales volume is no less important than European. this indicator
It characterizes the level of consumer demand and spending, and constitutes a significant
share of the national GDP. Here forecasts are not so positive. It is expected that January
Retail sales in the US will be reduced again to 0.4-0.5%, which is less than the December
drop by 0.9%, but still is an indication of deterioration of the economic situation.
Low inflation puts pressure on the consumer demand that can
a negative impact on the US currency.

Also today, it is worth paying attention to
quarterly report of the Bank of England on inflation and on the performance of the bank head Mark
Carney. Recently, the state of inflation does not please investors in the United Kingdom:
in December, the consumer price index for the first time fell to 0.5%, which made
Mark Carney talk about the postponement of interest rate rises. Today, he can shed
light on the future of the British monetary policy.

Based on the totality of the economic
factors during the day is expected to strengthen the European
currency. In particular quotation EUR / USD pair may rise to levels of 1.1350 and 1.1400.

News of day

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Russian gold is not sold Blogger understood as

Russian gold is not sold! Blogger understood as foreign media confuse readers

Last
week was a lot of material on the media
that Russia is buying gold, stored
them, as well as news that the government
allegedly began selling the accumulated
gold to maintain stability.
Here is a good example.

December 17
ZeroHedge edition asks a question: “Will
gold sales following Putin’s move? “.
And the next day, they have a
material where there is a “response” – “According to
According to the bank Societe General, Russian start
the sale of its gold. ” Author of the post in the
portal goldenfront.ru saw
This report something suspicious
and he understood himself, went from
disinformation.

“I yesterday
I did not believe it when I first saw
and certainly I do not believe today, looking
charts from the main specialist
Gold Charts Nika Leyrda “- writes
he. According to the data, the volume of Russian
gold reserves increased by 600 thousand. oz
in November this year. Already on another
graphics, the dollar Russian gold
reserves fell by about $ 400 million.
Of course, one does not exclude that the Russian
could start selling in December, but in
the reality of this, too, did not happen.

Here
proof – later site of Gold
Chat refutes rumors of the sale of Russian
gold. An excerpt from the article: “An error
Zerohedge, relying on the mistake to Societe General
sales of Russian gold. ZH brought
Quote from the bank Societe General: «It seems
possible that in December, the Central Bank of Russia began
the sale of the gold reserves and
Some sources report that the size of the
official gold reserves fell
to $ 4.3 billion in the first week of December. ”
Very precise number – $ 4.3 billion By.
the whole, the bank took this figure from the material
on the Business Insider website, which in its
turn, refers to the Russian site
Vesti Finance from 11.12.2014, “On Thursday, the Bank of Russia
He announced a reduction in gold reserves
to $ 4.3 billion in one week, reports Vesti
Finance “(translated quote from the English).
But in fact, on the Russian site
the following is written: “Gold and
Russia’s international reserves for the week of November 28
December 5, declined from $ 420.5 billion to $ 416.2
billion, the central bank said on Thursday. Behind
the previous week, from 21 to 28 November, the gold reserves
rose from $ 420.4 billion to $ 420.5 billion. On 14
November the size of the gold reserves stood at $ 420.6 billion,
November 7 – $ 421.4 billion rubles. “

Here we are
found where the buried fault. It turns out,
that the reduction of $ 4.3 billion, which is
it refers to the total gold and
Reserves, and header only confuses
us, that meant only gold.

"The essence of the criticism
the author is not that ZeroHedge gave inaccurate
data, and that it does not provide
links to the original sources. sometimes simply
it is impossible to see how
reliable data displayed"- the author writes.

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Apple will release its bonds in Swiss francs

Apple will release its bonds in Swiss francs

AT
November corporation Apple was going to
was to issue Eurobonds, but after
sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc
She changed her mind. Now she’s the first time in his
the story is going to release its
bonds denominated in Swiss
francs.

For
control the release of the securities held
Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse.

maturities
securities are not yet known, but investors
It suggests that most likely it will be
ten- or fifteen-year debt
paper. The yield is of the order of
0.5%. Negative base rate
Swiss regulator does
fabulously cheap loans in Swiss
banks – this and decided to take advantage
Apple.

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January inflation in Russia sharing it with new

January inflation in Russia sharing it with the new Central Bank rate

CPI
prices in Russia increased in January
3.9% – on a monthly basis and by 15% – in
annualized. This was last night said
Rosstat. Analysts had forecast growth
potrebtsen index in January only
2.2% (13.3% – on an annualized basis).

Thus, surprise
as inflation equation
and updated the key rate of the Central Bank was a success,
writes today Reuters. occurs
question – whether the central bank is too early
I lowered the rate?

The head of the central bank
Elvira Nabiullina said that
acceleration of inflation to peak should
only occur in the second quarter,
assuming that for some time the key
rate may be lower than the actual
inflation: "Even if inflation
above 15%, then, in our opinion, it will be on
short period. And the rate of 15% for this
period is normal. I remind you that when
we had a rate of 5.5 percent, it
while inflation was lower.
The rate may at some point become
below inflation", – said Nabiullina.

Inflation 15%, e.g.
very surprised Vladimir Osakovsky
from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as Reuters writes.
"Very interesting data, inflation
at the level of rates, which is very risky,
in terms of what it creates preconditions
for policy tightening. But given
Nabiullina words, the big question – how
long they are willing to admit it"-
he said.

Central Bank of Russia reduced
its key interest rate from 17% to 15%, explaining that
the fact that the risks are very strong cooling
economy prevail over inflationary
risks.

Analysts at Capital
Economics expect the peak of inflation in the second quarter
at the level of 17.5%: "While oil prices
Ruble frozen and remains stable
a further increase in inflation can not
prevent the Central Bank to reduce
interest rates on"- says
Liza Ermolenko of Capital Economics.

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ING On ruble affects approximation of tax period

ING: On the ruble affects an approximation of the tax period

Having lost to the dollar about 0.7% on yesterday’s close, the ruble became an outsider among the major EMEA currencies. But amid the drop in oil prices to $ 61-62 / bbl to yesterday’s lows of $ 58 / bbl this loss seem insignificant. As a result, the main pressure in oil prices was broadcast predominantly in a lower ruble price of raw materials. Support to the ruble had massive sales from exporters, who confidently closed the continued demand for the currency. Probably affects the approach of the tax period, according to the chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS Dmitry Polevoy. We also note that the options market in recent days resumed decline in implied volatility (from 35-40% to 29-33% for a period of 1 to 12 months.), Suggesting further stabilization of expectations in the ruble. Such dynamics improves the attractiveness "hedge" risks in the ruble. Central Bank will hold two auctions of foreign currency loans secured by rights claims in dollars for a period of 28 and 365 days, with a limit of $ 4 billion., And $ 1 billion. And min. rates ranging from 0.9235% to 1.4209%. Judging by the dynamics of the spread between the interest rate securities and swaps, which yesterday remained in the red, short-term shortage of dollar liquidity in the market is not observed.

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Far Raiffeisenbank’s branch network is closed

Far Raiffeisenbank’s branch network is closed

Seven
Raiffeisenbank branches in six
cities (Blagoveshchensk, Vladivostok,
Yakutsk, Khabarovsk, Magadan,
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) will be closed
September 1 this year. This is due
the fact that the share of income of the Far East
branch in the stream is less than
1%, and the potential of this region is still
It remains low. Given the low
development prospects of the customer base,
build an effective business
region presenting bank
difficult, and it was therefore
It decided to withdraw from the Far East.
This is stated in the official
press release Raiffeisenbank.

leadership
Bank plans that individuals
have time to close their accounts and transfer
them to other banks. also discusses
the question of whether to sell loans
individuals and small customer segment
business with other banks. Close
Corporate customers will be asked to
go to the service branch
“Siberia” in Novosibirsk.

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