Danske Bank about euro all this has gone too

Danske Bank about the euro: all this has gone too far, get ready for ECB intervention

Arne Rasmussen, head of market research at Danske Bank, expects the euro will test the 1.20 level in the short term. «EUR / USD showed an impressive 10% race in April, as the market had overestimated the ability to implement Trump promised tax cuts through Congress (negative for the dollar), and the ECB moved to tougher rhetoric when it Draghi in Sintra June 27 provoked considerable sell European bonds (positive for the euro). We will see 1.20, 1.17 and only then, but we should see an increase in the next 1-2 weeks. If not, then at the end of August, that is, until the September meeting of the ECB. This probability may disappear by Jackson Hall.

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Pound does not receive support from upbeat economic

Pound does not receive support from upbeat economic data

Investors ignore signs of strengthening UK economy, while political risks associated with the release of the country from the European Union, dominated in the forecasts about the pound.

The pound showed little reaction on Thursday immediately after the country’s service sector index exceeded the average forecast of economists in December, rising at the fastest pace in more than a year. Muted reaction underscored the contrast in comparison with the data after the June referendum on Brexit, when even with the estimates were enough reports to cause a greater reaction.

At that time, both appointed in March by Prime Minister Terezoy Mey deadline on a formal British exit from the EU launch fast approaching, better than expected performance of the economy have been ignored. At the same time there have been significant fluctuations in the currency, despite the relatively small changes in the way the country out of the EU. The pound has fallen by 17% after the decision to withdraw from the EU, and fell to $ 1.22 on Tuesday, which is the lowest level since October 31.

“Politics is superior to the economic data, – said Steven Barrow, currency strategist at Standard Bank in London. – We tend to think that the pound will go further when any restrictions associated with Brexit, and I believe that it will remain in that position for some time. Many are skeptical about the current strength of the economy. “

The pound rose to 0.09% for 30 minutes after the publication of the report on Thursday, which showed that business activity index for the services sector from Markit rose to 56.2 in December, well above the 54.7 projected by economists.

Now the pound sterling against the US dollar at $ 1.2332.

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Analyst from company ForexMart

Analyst from the company ForexMart (ForeksMart)

AUD / USD. 16.01.

Australian rebounded from the resistance line 0.7500.

The currency pair AUD / USD rebounded from 0.7500 level and started to form a candle model “absorption” in the daily chart. The pair was likely to start moving sideways, the closest target is at 0.7380. The pair is in the overbought zone on the RSI (7), a good time to consider selling. It is possible that the US dollar this week will receive additional support in the run-up to the inauguration of Donald Trump.

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USD / CAD. 16.01.

Looney adheres to the flat

An important event this week that may affect the further position of the Canadian dollar will be a decision on the interest rate and the speech of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. USD / CAD pair started falling at the end of last year and continues to adhere to the framework of the downtrend.

Before the weekend trading instrument formed flat, the pair is trading in the range 1.3113 – 1.316. At the moment, we see a test of the support level 1.3130. If successful, the breakdown of this level may develop upward momentum with a view to 1.31850. Stochastic strengthened in the neutral zone, MACD is near the mark 0.

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Analyst from company ForexMart

Analyst from the company ForexMart (ForeksMart)

GBP / USD. 02.02.

The situation is still unclear

Yesterday the pair closed higher. During the day, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2542, but the pair rebounding from the level of early recovery and rose to 1.2658. Currently the pair is trading near the resistance level that has to be broken today. Most likely, the pair will unfold today down to 1.2565, if the price falls below 1.2610.

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USD / CAD. 02.02.

Loonie broke the key level of 1.3000

The Canadian dollar was able to maintain its achievements, despite the vague statements of the Bank of Canada. Stephen Poloz said the weaker than expected, excess capacity, low inflation and the uncertainty of Trump’s economic policy.

Today, the currency tool USD / CAD was trading near 1.3000. In case of breaking down this psychological level, a further decrease can be significant enough to elevations 1.2820, 1.2760 or lower. What happened, as we see in the schedule presented. The pair broke the key level of 1.3000 and moved down. An alternative motion quotations pair may be an increase to 1.3125 and 1.3165 after breaking previously established maxima.

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USD / JPY. 02.02.

dreams bears tested resistance level 112.50

Currency pair USD / JPY at the end of yesterday’s trading on the daily chart has formed a candlestick pattern “inside bar”. Today pair moves according to said pattern, but encounters resistance over a high level of 112.50. The interest rate the US Fed as well as analysts had forecast remained unchanged, but, judging by the comments of representatives of the backup system, the March increase can not happen because of “Trama policy.” The dollar is under pressure in the near future a new level test can be expected 112.50, which opens the way to medium-term objectives to 111.10 or even 100.00, which is located near the simple average of the last 100 trading days.

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Central Bank revoked licenses of two banks and

Central Bank revoked the licenses of two banks and one NGO

Central Bank revoked the licenses of two banks – Chelyabinsk "reserve" and Moscow "Anelik RU"As well as from NGOs "continent Finance" from Moscow.
The regulator report said that the activities of JSC "Reserve" It was associated with "increased credit risk". The Central Bank said that the bank’s management has repeatedly sent the requirement to create the necessary reserves.

"In June and July this year as part of supervisory activities by the Bank of Russia revealed the operation of the credit institution, designed to replace the highly liquid assets of dubious quality assets", – emphasized in the Bank of Russia, noting that the bank was trying to hide the loss of part of the capital.

The regulator added, the bank administration "effectively removed itself" on the decision of problems.

In its turn, "Anelik RU", Which is the processing center of one of the payment systems, violated the legal requirements by not providing to the supervisor full details of its operations. In addition, the Bank was engaged in dubious transactions connected with the withdrawal of money abroad and cashing them, told in the CB.

Non-bank credit organization "continent Finance" also he paid the price for what did not provide full reporting to the Central Bank. In addition, the controller experts found the NCO questionable operation for buying and selling of precious metal coins, whose ultimate goal is cash withdrawal.

Of the three companies only "Reserve" and "Anelik RU" They are members of the deposit insurance system. At the time of withdrawal of the license "Reserve" It took 415 th place in the country’s banking system, "Anelik RU" – 524-e, and NGOs "continent Finance" located on the 568-th line rating.

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China once again became largest holder of US

China once again became the largest holder of US government debt

China regained its status as the largest holder of US debt, overtaking Japan this indicator for the first time since October last year, according to a study of the American Ministry of Finance.

In June, China bought US Treasuries by $ 44.3 billion, while Japan sold these assets in the amount of $ 22.5 billion As a result, the volume of China’s portfolio of US debt rose to $ 1.15 trillion, the Japanese -. Fell to $ 1.09 trillion.

In third place is Ireland with $ 302.5 billion (+ $ 6.7 billion per month), followed by Brazil ($ 269.7 billion, unchanged), Cayman Islands ($ 254 billion, a decline of $ 12.1 billion) and Switzerland ( $ 244.5 billion, an increase of $ 5 billion).

The top 10 holders of US Treasuries also includes the United Kingdom, Luxembourg, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Russia in June has reduced investments in US government bonds by $ 5.8 billion. Russia occupies 14th place with $ 101.9 billion among the largest holders of US Treasuries.

The total amount of non-residents’ investments in US Treasuries rose by $ 47.7 billion in June to $ 6 trillion 171 billion. Of this amount, the paper on the $ 3 trillion 995 billion owned by governments or central banks of foreign countries.

The net outflow of foreign investment from the United States shares in the last month amounted to $ 4.47 billion, the inflow of investments in corporate debt securities – $ 2.81 billion.

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Bank of Russia issued plastic banknote of 100

The Bank of Russia issued a plastic banknote of 100 rubles for the 2018 World Cup in the I quarter of 2018

CBR issued a plastic banknote first in Russia in I quarter 2018 Denomination bills will be $ 100, it will be dedicated to the World Cup in 2018, he told reporters the first deputy chairman of Bank of Russia Georgy Luntovsky at the IX Urals forum “Information security in the financial sector” .

“Commemorative banknote dedicated to the World Cup is plastic – it is 100%. It will be different to the touch and the quality of the material, “- he said, adding that the Central Bank expects to release it in the I quarter of 2018.

“Goznak first encounters with this technology, so we are not in a hurry to actively implement it,” – added Luntovsky.

The central bank also intends to use plastic in the manufacture of one of the new banknotes in denomination of 200 and 2000 rubles on which the symbols of Sevastopol will be displayed – the monument image scuttled ships and a view of the Chersonese, and the Far East – the bridge to the island of Russian in Vladivostok and the cosmodrome “East” in Amur region. “We want as an experiment, one of the banknotes to do with the use of plastic” – told Luntovsky.

“I recently touched the bill of 550 Swiss francs – and so they have made it a three-layered: on both sides of paper, in the middle of the plastic. Maybe we will do a similar bill, “- he explained.

The design of the new banknotes will be approved by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia in April.

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