Tag: growth

Oil prices have moved to rapid growth

Oil prices have moved to the rapid growth

Reduces this morning, oil prices moved to an explosion, add about 1%.

Price of December futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange to 12:02 MSK rose $ 0.53 (1.06%) – up to $ 50.72 per barrel.

Futures price for WTI crude oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the NYMEX) has increased this time by $ 0.42 (0.87%) – up to $ 48.66 per barrel.

Previously a small reduction in the price of oil experts associated with the signals of the conservation of raw materials supply growth in the global market.

Traders continue to assess the results of the meeting of OPEC countries, which was held last week.

"The importance of the agreement on the reduction of production achieved by the organization, not to the amount of the expected decline in oil production, and in the fact that Saudi Arabia and OPEC returned to active management of the oil market, – quotes Bloomberg analyst Societe Generale (PA: SOGN) SA Mike Wittner. – It is difficult to overstate the importance of this factor".

OPEC at a meeting held in Algiers agreed to reduce oil production from the current 33.24 million barrels per day to 32,5-33 million barrels per day.

The final written confirmation arrangements must be made at the official meeting of the cartel on November 30 in Vienna. At the same time decisions will be made on quotas for each of the OPEC countries and the reduction of defined terms

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Central banks of world continue to blow bubbles

The central banks of the world continue to blow bubbles

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) has allocated a new batch of money. Within the next auction for granting loans super long TLTRO banks were still 46.2 billion euros at the zero rate. The Fed also did not scare and market participants expected, kept rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, we recall, the US regulator has lowered forecasts for the economy and reduced the forecasted number of rate increases next year.

Against this background, we see the rapid growth of virtually all assets. Financial institutions buy any risky asset that can bring income, including bonds of developing countries, with an interesting yield.

Leading US stock index – the index of wide market S P 500 – it has almost returned to its record highs.

Details: http: //www.vestifinance.ru/articles/75351

Moreover, this week the Bank of Japan announced a review of the monetary policy. The regulator decided to give up the monetary base landmark as one of the major targets. Instead, the Japanese Central Bank will begin to target the yield on 10-year government bonds at the current level of about 0%.

And although the market initially reacted to the decision of the yen strengthening economic commentator Grigory Beglaryan confident that sooner or later, the new strategy will lead to a drop in the yen, which means in risky assets around the world will rush back the Japanese capital.

Today, by the way, the Japanese yen depreciates against the dollar and the euro by about 0.4%.

However, of Citi experts believe that the Bank of Japan’s decision is mainly due to lack of funds for the purchase of assets, and in addition, the Bank of Japan sought to avoid adverse effects on financial stability.

"These actions mean that central banks (in particular, the Bank of Japan, and to a lesser extent, the European Central Bank) have become increasingly aware that the previous paradigm … is deeply wrong and needs to be replaced", – stated in the Citi report.

"An urgent challenge for central banks is not so much a reduction in the effectiveness of such purchases, but rather the narrower question of what the appropriate assets for purchases end"- experts say.
Details: http: //www.vestifinance.ru/articles/75351

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Results of week Kuroda was not impressed markets

Results of the week: Kuroda was not impressed markets and Yellen continues reassuring

Global financial markets continue to comprehend decisions on monetary policy the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, but made it clear that the increase in borrowing costs may occur in December, when labor market conditions continue to improve.

At the same time, the US central bank has reduced the number of expected rate increases this year from two to one and predict a less aggressive interest rate rise in the next two years.

The next meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy is scheduled for the beginning of November and mid-December. Economists believe that the rate hike is unlikely in November largely because the meeting will take place just a few days before the US presidential election.

Markets are currently estimated at 15% probability of a rate hike at the November meeting, according to the forecast of the Fed rate by Investing.com. The chances of its increase is about 60% in December.

The Fed’s decision came shortly after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and announced that it will be more flexibility to manage the rate of growth of the money supply, as quickly as possible to achieve the acceleration of inflation to the 2% target.

Japanese regulator moves from target to expand the monetary base targeting the yield of government bonds (JGB). The Central Bank intends to change the amounts of JGB purchases to increase the slope of the curve and keep the yield on 10-year bonds around zero.

However, investors skeptical about the ability of the Bank of Japan to achieve an inflation objective with the new measures. Some experts believe that the Japanese regulator end effects tools.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve continues to justify the market expectations regarding the timing of the next increase in US interest rates.

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CBR sees rate of monetary inflation risks increase

CBR sees the rate of monetary inflation risks increase growth

Money supply growth does not create risks for higher inflation in the Russian Federation, the chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.

"We do not see the risks associated with rising inflation", – she said at a forum "Russia Calling!"organized "VTB (MCX: VTBR) Capital".

"We happening spending of reserve funds, we see that the system can go into a stage of structural liquidity surplus"- she said.

"Incidentally, we welcome the fact that the Ministry of Finance is now changing the proportion of the expenditure of reserve funds and borrowing, because we will have less absorption. Otherwise, the Central Bank would have absorbed much more", – he added the head of the Bank of Russia.

Nabiullina also said that the Bank of Russia welcomes the Ministry of Finance plans to increase volumes of internal borrowing, it will not affect the interest rates on the market ,.

"We welcome the fact that the Ministry of Finance will change the proportion of the expenditure of the Reserve Fund and borrowing, because we will have less absorption (liquidity)", – she said.

"Increasing the share of loans from the Ministry of Finance will not have an impact on interest rates", – he added the head of the Central Bank.

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Leafing through latest report from OPEC

Leafing through the latest report from OPEC

According to the latest report of OPEC, published October 12, the country’s oil cartel raised production in September at 220,000 barrels per day. All the world’s growth in oil production totaled 1.46 million. Barrels per day compared to August of this year and reached 96.4 million barrels per day. The share of OPEC oil production amounted to 34.6% of Sway oil produced in the world, and this share decreased by 0.3% in September. Production in non-OPEC countries amounted to 1.24 mln. Barrels per day

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Instant catc

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Confederation of British IndustryCBI Index of

The Confederation of British Industry / CBI /: Index of industrial production in November 24 against 13 in October

UK manufacturers expect a sharp rise in selling prices over the next three months as a weaker British pound has pushed up the purchase price. On Tuesday he told the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

According to the report, the index of price expectations of manufacturers in November rose to 19, its highest level in nearly three years. This index reflects the percentage of respondents expecting a rise in prices against those who expect their fall.

Production growth for the three months September-November slowed for the third month in a row, but the expectations of manufacturers in respect of the following quarter increased, partly due to the level of export orders, which were above average. The CBI surveyed 430 companies during the period from October 26 to November 11.

"Weak pound begins to exert its influence"- says Rhine Newton-Smith, chief economist at the CBI. A weaker pound, which has lost nearly a fifth of its value against the US dollar since the UK voted in favor of withdrawal from the EU, raises import prices, but promotes exports as it makes British goods cheaper to overseas buyers.

Some economists fear that the rise in import prices will lead to an acceleration of consumer inflation, as consumers moderate their spending, which will hurt growth prospects in the UK.

But as long as this is indicated by small signs, and consumer price inflation in October fell slightly from the nearly two-year high reached in the previous month. Meanwhile, retail sales compared with the same period last year, grew in October at the fastest pace in nearly 15 years, as British buyers are buying winter hats and coats, as well as goods intended for Halloween.

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Chinese companies have improved mood

Chinese companies have improved mood

Mood largest companies in China in November, slightly improved, which contributed to the increase in orders, production and the recent decline in the yuan. This is evidenced by the index MNI China Business Sentiment.

The indicator rose to 53.1 in November from 52.2 in October, with the majority of companies expect continued strong growth in the next three months.

"The Chinese economy remains on the path of stabilization"- said economist MNI Indicators Endi Vu.

"Our survey indicates that Chinese companies have overcome various macroeconomic obstacles well enough", – he added.

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US dollar fell on Monday center of attention

The US dollar fell on Monday, the center of attention – the US data and rising oil prices

The US dollar weakened on Monday as investors focused on the upcoming US data and the possible limitation of oil production by OPEC.

the WSJ dollar index, which reflects the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, fell 0.4% to 91.50.

US Dollar weakened against commodity currencies, falling to 0.7% against the Canadian dollar and 0.4% against the NOK.

Oil prices on Monday rose by 1.8%, while investors evaluate the possibility of reaching agreement on the OPEC production restrictions in the run-up to the meeting on Wednesday. The reduction of oil production is likely to support prices and growth rates will cause the oil-exporting countries, such as the Canadian dollar, Russian ruble and the Norwegian krone.

“All eyes will be on the OPEC meeting this week, investors want to understand how much can be cut oil production”, – said Brad Bechtel, a currency strategist at Jefferies Group.

Investors also will study US economic data this week, in particular the reports on GDP, industrial production and the labor market. Positive data will enhance market confidence in the appreciation of the US Federal Reserve interest rates in December.

The market has already accounted for 96% probability of rate hikes at the December meeting of the Federal Reserve, as shown by CME Group data.

Higher rates usually contribute to the growth of the dollar, making it more attractive to investors.

The euro / dollar was trading up 0.3% at 1.0608. ECB President Mario Draghi on Monday reiterated its call for the authorities to carry out reforms to improve economic growth in the euro area. According to Draghi, it would make monetary policy more effective.

Japanese yen higher against dollar 1%, recovering from the fall of 7% after the US presidential election.

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Oil was developed and will fall

Oil was developed and will fall

Leaders of growth and
fall on Wednesday

Oil was developed and will fall

Commodities

On Wednesday
Russian Energy Minister Novak said that between oil producers should be
trust – only under such conditions can be achieved results in restriction
in oil production. And it sounded pretty optimistic that too
It stirs interest in the hydrocarbon market.

However, while
we do not wait for the first data on the January production, we can not with certainty
to say how “honest” OPEC representatives. And, then, now the market is
rely solely on the data for commercial US stocks and a report from Baker Hughes.

after data
from the American Petroleum Institute (API) market is believed that the reduction
commercial stocks continues. Therefore, published on Wednesday by data
Energy became the bombshell. The index rose by 2.256 million,
showing a maximum in the last 5 weeks of gains. And we warned about this.

Brent already
I turned down, breaking 56.00 dollars. / bbl and moving down. It is possible that
Thursday movement will continue on expectations of a new batch of negative data from Baker Hughes. next
purpose on the way down can be a mark of 54.40. Continued on site GK FOREX CLUB

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