All eyes on US Nfp

All eyes on the US Nfp

Natixis according to analysts, should expect growth of new jobs in the US in March, at the level of 190 thousand.

Key points

“Given the low number of applications for unemployment benefits and increased confidence in the labor market, we expect that to grow by 190 thousand in March, the number of new jobs in the United States. That, coupled with stabilized measure of the proportion of labor in the total population, will allow unemployment to remain at 4.7%. Average hourly to grow on 0.3% m / m and 2.8% g / g “.

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Forecast for coming week Summing up views of

The forecast for the coming week: Summing up the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts

EUR / USD. Calendar upcoming week any special economic and political events is not checked, and possibly more than 50% so analysts supported almost half oscillators D1, inclined to the lateral movement of the pair. The second large enough group of experts (40%) believes that the couple should a second test the height of 1.1000. And only 10% of the experts believe that the pair will go immediately to the south. However, their view is supported by graphical analysis and almost half of the oscillator on the H4, indicating an overbought the pair. Moreover, in the medium term it expects fall for 65% analysts. Near term support is 1.0850, medium-term goal – to return to the zone 1.0500-1.0680;

– With regard to the future of GBP / USD, there trend indicators on the D1 insist on continuing sluggish, upward trend, which began in the last decade of April. With this view agree 30% of the experts believe that the pair have to break through the 1.3000 bar. An alternative view is represented by 70% analysts trend indicators 60% and 90% oscillators H4. They all insist on selling this pair, the nearest support is 1.2755. If we move to the medium-term forecast, the number of bears supporters among analysts already exceeds 80%, and as a main objective stated level of 1.2100.

– USD / JPY. After an impressive leap up the couple in the first half of last week and rather strong pullback in the second, the indicators were diametrically opposed – on the D1 they actively vote for the purchase of a pair, and H4 – for its sale. Analysts also are unable to reach any consensus: a third of them for the pair falling, one-third – of its growth, and the remaining third – for a sideways trend. At the same time, about 60% of the experts believe that, with the support in the 111.60-111.79 area in the next few weeks, the pair still has to try to conquer the height of 115.50;

– and the last couple of our review – USD / CHF. As her schedule last week was similar to the chart USD / JPY, so similar and indicators predictions about its future: on the D1 – purchase, at H4 – sale. But as experts and graphical analysis, then, in their view, the pair must first will fall to 0.9940-0.9960 area, then fight back to the level of 0.9990, and then go back into the zone 1.0050-1.0100.

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Trump had verbal intervention

Trump had verbal intervention

On the eve of Wednesday night, the US dollar depreciated strongly to most world currencies. His course collapses President Donald Trump, who in an interview to CNN declared too high exchange rate of the national currency, which is hurting the US economy now, and will harm in the long run. In our opinion, now the trend in the decline of the dollar will continue throughout the second quarter. Although perhaps the May meeting of the Fed will be able to reverse this trend, if mega-regulator will be more rigid and resolute in monetary policy issue. Growth usually begins one week before the meeting, to be held May 3. So at least another week and a half dollar’s decline is very likely. Yes, in principle, if the President took the course of weakening, then surely it reaches the desired value it, because at such a position is very easy to intervene, just giving an interview. The only thing that confused, so it’s impermanence Trump. He has already reviewed several issues that are before the election, the voice in the same light, and after an opinion has changed. But in the case of “too expensive” dollar, while Trump remains true to himself. Previously, he also said as much, and that was the first signal to the fact that Trump policy may be a policy of “weak dollar”, in contrast to the “strong dollar” policy prior to it under Barack Obama. And Obama, too, at the very beginning of his reign, the states made a statement that during his leadership of the country, he will adhere to the policy of a “strong dollar.” So if Trump is committed to its goal of reducing the national currency, this trend may continue for a long time … On the eve of Wednesday evening, the US dollar depreciated strongly to most world currencies. His course collapses President Donald Trump, who in an interview to CNN declared too high exchange rate of the national currency, which is hurting the US economy now, and will harm in the long run. In our opinion, now the trend in the decline of the dollar will continue throughout the second quarter. Although perhaps the May meeting of the Fed will be able to reverse this trend, if mega-regulator will be more rigid and resolute in monetary policy issue. Growth usually begins one week before the meeting, to be held May 3. So at least another week and a half dollar’s decline is very likely. Yes, in principle, if the President took the course of weakening, then surely it reaches the desired value it, because at such a position is very easy to intervene, just giving an interview. The only thing that confused, so it’s impermanence Trump. He has already reviewed several issues that are before the election, the voice in the same light, and after an opinion has changed. But in the case of “too expensive” dollar, while Trump remains true to himself. Previously, he also said as much, and that was the first signal to the fact that Trump policy may be a policy of “weak dollar”, in contrast to the “strong dollar” policy prior to it under Barack Obama. And Obama, too, at the very beginning of his reign, the states made a statement that during his leadership of the country, he will adhere to the policy of a “strong dollar.” So if Trump is committed to its goal of reducing the national currency, this trend may continue for a long time …

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Fxwirepro 20 dma inhibits growth Nzdusd better

Fxwirepro: 20-dma inhibits growth Nzd / usd, better up to the breakdown of long above

  • After two days of growth, NZD / USD pulled back into negative territory.
  • Risk aversion caused by geopolitical tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the US bombing in Afghanistan, leading to a massive weakening of the dollar.
  • To determine the direction, the markets focused on US statistics, the publication of which, including retail sales and the CPI, will be in the New York session.
  • The pair showed strong break above key resistance in the 0.6960 area (trendline).
  • The bullish move braked 20-DMA resistance, have settled at around 0.7001.
  • Stochastic gives an upward trend, while the RSI remain neutral, keeping a level of 50.
  • Continued growth in the breakdown of possibly above 20-DMA followed by testing perspective 0.7075 (38.2% Fibo correction 0.7375 and 0.6890 to decrease).

support levels – 0.6975 (5-DMA), 0.6960 (trend line), 0.6920 (April 10 lows)

Resistance levels – 0.7001 (20-DMA 23.6% Fib), 0.7069 (upper band Bollinger), 0.7075 38.2% Fib)

PERIOD INDEX TREND OB / OS INDEX

1H bear neutral
4H moderately bearish neutral
1D moderately bullish neutral
1W neutral neutral

Recommended rise in the breakdown longs above 20-DMA in an area 0.7001, with stop-loss level of 0.6950 and 0.7075 take profit / 0.71 / 0.7130

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Brexit still possible to cancel

Brexit still possible to cancel?

EP President Antonio Tajani yesterday after a meeting with British Prime Minister Terezy Mey said that the European Union will be happy to take Britain back if after the parliamentary elections will be clear that the voters changed their minds. Moreover, a change of government does not even need a trial. According to him, all EU countries will support the decision of the new government if it decides to cancel Brexit. And, he also said several times that the veto the entire deal if the UK does not agree to the preservation of all the rights of EU citizens already living in the UK, and the British in Europe. In our view, therefore enable the British to think again carefully whether to still leave the EU. Hinted absolutely clear, give a specific call to action. So, June 8, we expect another strong leap rate of the pound sterling, but which way will depend on the British themselves. Voting for the government Terezy Mey, a second opportunity to stay in the EU can no longer be. Until 8 June is a high probability of the pound sterling cost growth, as the quotes usually grow on expectations of some important event. Once an opportunity to cancel the transaction at Brexit, it is already positive expectations, which do not necessarily have to be justified. The conclusion is very simple, as the old coaching adage – buy on expectations, sell the fact …

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Eurusd maintains neutral attitude in short term

Eur / usd: maintains a neutral attitude in the short term

According to forecasts, “forecasters” UOB Group, EUR / USD will maintain a neutral attitude in the short term and can continue to trade in a range of 1.0555 / 1.0700.

Key points

“Contrary to our expectations decline, EUR In mostly traded in a sideways channel with a slight rise and closed in the green zone. Positive attitude can lead to continued growth at this stage, but a steady rally above 1.0700 seems unlikely (slight resistance is expected to 1.0680).

Yesterday the EUR reached a low of 1.0600, but he was able to recover quickly. Indicators are now mainly kept in the flat, and we continue to anticipate trade between 1.0555 and 1.0700, at least in the next few days. “

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Do not forget in addition to FOMC will now televised

Do not forget: in addition to the FOMC, will now televised debate!

Today at 22.00 MSK. held last televised debate between the candidates for president of France Macron and Le Pen, which will last more than 2 hours.

Although the FOMC today pulls the blanket, it is possible that TV debates course can also once again, as in previous times, provoke sharp fluctuations in assets denominated in euros.

The EUR / USD pair attracts special attention 1.10 (psychological level), and then a magnet for the bulls may be 1.1070 (Nov 1) and 1.1130 (Nov 4), if Le Pen loses the debate.

In addition to the EUR / USD, bullish momentum can dial EUR / JPY and EUR / GBP. The growth of risk appetite will have a lot of pressure on the safe haven JPY, and GBP interest quickly fades amid concerns problems Brekzita.

On the other hand, if the odds on the basis of debate in the 2nd round Le Pen winning grow, EUR / USD may fall to 1.0775 (200-DMA) and 1.0685 (100-DMA).

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