Ruble goes beyond oil what are future prospects

Ruble goes beyond oil – what are the future prospects?

Ruble for the second day
It shows strong growth – despite
the presence of several positive
reasons, the main thing is growing
in the price of oil.

Remember last
Friday, the Russian ruble was still under
strong pressure – when announced
the decision of the central bank cut its key
rate to 15% and the ruble began to fall sharply
together with dollar reached the level 72.
Analysts then stirred up and
almost began to bury the “wooden”
although in fact the central bank has done all

And – lo and behold – reduction
rates in Russia coincided with a new rally
the oil market. By the evening of the oil
Futures rose sharply by almost 7% and
Ruble went after them, and by the end of
Session played all the daily losses.

This week started
very positive for the oil and the ruble – and
at the end of Tuesday’s oil has been trading
at a maximum since the beginning of the year (Brent
It closed at $ 56.98, of data).
Ruble, of course, a little behind in
dynamics, but still ahead. While on
he has almost no pressure there, it
say and in the Central Bank. And all
geopolitical and other risks have
laid in the price (and they cost a dollar
are about 15-20 rubles.).

"Here the risks are not purely
economic, geopolitical laid here
risks – namely, strengthening the sanctions,
disconnecting from SWIFT, increased tension
Ukraine, Obama’s statements – that’s all
here. Here, the economy just rubles
16 should be removed from the dollar, and then it was
would normally", – says Alexander
Kareevsky economic commentator.

In the future, it all depends
oil – and here something might happen
anything. As for
long-term forecasts, there is a very
different variants. And one of them – oil
It can grow even up to $ 100,
and up to $ 200 or more per barrel.
The same forecast has recently expressed by the head
OPEC, Mr. Al-Badri: "oil never
It will no longer be worth a hundred dollars …
Because it would cost two hundred

And in that case
will the ruble? Some simple calculations give
us the answer – the ruble in the area of ​​17 rubles. behind
dollar. By the way, technical analysis is also
It allows such levels to the national
currency. Now we have to wait to
This prediction came true.

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January inflation in Russia sharing it with new

January inflation in Russia sharing it with the new Central Bank rate

prices in Russia increased in January
3.9% – on a monthly basis and by 15% – in
annualized. This was last night said
Rosstat. Analysts had forecast growth
potrebtsen index in January only
2.2% (13.3% – on an annualized basis).

Thus, surprise
as inflation equation
and updated the key rate of the Central Bank was a success,
writes today Reuters. occurs
question – whether the central bank is too early
I lowered the rate?

The head of the central bank
Elvira Nabiullina said that
acceleration of inflation to peak should
only occur in the second quarter,
assuming that for some time the key
rate may be lower than the actual
inflation: "Even if inflation
above 15%, then, in our opinion, it will be on
short period. And the rate of 15% for this
period is normal. I remind you that when
we had a rate of 5.5 percent, it
while inflation was lower.
The rate may at some point become
below inflation", – said Nabiullina.

Inflation 15%, e.g.
very surprised Vladimir Osakovsky
from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as Reuters writes.
"Very interesting data, inflation
at the level of rates, which is very risky,
in terms of what it creates preconditions
for policy tightening. But given
Nabiullina words, the big question – how
long they are willing to admit it"-
he said.

Central Bank of Russia reduced
its key interest rate from 17% to 15%, explaining that
the fact that the risks are very strong cooling
economy prevail over inflationary

Analysts at Capital
Economics expect the peak of inflation in the second quarter
at the level of 17.5%: "While oil prices
Ruble frozen and remains stable
a further increase in inflation can not
prevent the Central Bank to reduce
interest rates on"- says
Liza Ermolenko of Capital Economics.

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Gold fell strongly in anticipation of Greek agreement

Gold fell strongly in anticipation of the Greek agreement solutions

On Wednesday morning, the gold
It is trading at about $ 1209.20
– just above yesterday’s close. hope
a compromise between Greece and its
creditors of the third day, weakening demand
for safe assets.

Most likely, futures
Gold support at $ 1201.60, and
Resistance is at $ 1236.70 –
the high of February 16th. Yesterday, gold fell
in price from $ 1233.70
to $ 1204.70 (according to the portal, and to
closing futures were at around
$ 1208.60.

According to some
foreign media today from Athens extreme
a period when they can turn to
international creditors with a request for
extension of the current loan agreement
4-6 months. Thus, concern
about the country’s future in the euro zone
moderately reduced.

Recall the current period
Agreement on Greece bailout
ends on February 28 – the country
provided EUR 240 billion. And if
agreement is not extended, the country can
in general remain without money.

Investors are now waiting
any statements from Greece or the EU, and
and Monitor Reports – today should
come out of the last meeting
The Fed, which will give an additional
view on the timing of
rise in US interest rates. Expectation
Rates rise adversely affects
dynamics of the “gold” prices, because
Metal can not compete with
earning assets at growth rates.

At this time, the silver
It is trading at $ 16.428 per troy
ounce. Yesterday, it was trading at around
$ 16.37.

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Head of Bank of Japan sees no signs of currency

The head of the Bank of Japan sees no signs of currency war

Japanese regulator on Friday rejected
opinion that the general fashion
central banks in the monetary program
stimulation due to “currency
war. ” He does not notice the competitive
exchange rate devaluation.

Central banks
all over the world, including Asian
Japan’s neighbors – South Korea and India –
following in the footsteps of Japan and the eurozone, weakening
its monetary policy for
stimulation of slow growth.

He noted that he sees no sign
tension between developed and
emerging economies in terms of
movements in exchange rates. He does not feel
much excitement over the fact that
many countries are rushing to devalue
their currencies to gain at their expense
exports a competitive advantage.

Fed policy, the Bank of Japan and the ECB aims
to achieve a single goal –
price stability, rather than the fact that
derail its own currency “, – says
Kuroda, paying no attention to the freshest
example – the euro to fall to 12-year-old
low against the dollar on this
week after the launch of QE program
from the ECB.

pain emerging economies
adds two divergent policy
the main central banks of the world – and the Fed
ECB. It creates unpredictable
perpendicular to each other flow
on world markets. Kuroda noted that
central banks, including the Bank of Japan,
can learn much from the Fed’s exit
of the incentive program. but
head of the Japanese regulator stressed
that he himself will sustain its
huge stimulus program and
even expand it with features of appearance
changes in the upward price trend.

These statements and internal news
Yen slightly passed the positions against
Dollar: USDJPY at the moment
11.18 MSK trading at 120.90?.

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Dollar continues to lose ground

The dollar continues to lose ground

Dollar moves in
narrow range going up to the fourth week
low against the yen against the background of disappointing
macroeconomic data and news from the Persian
Bay, who raised the price of oil. other
American also falls major currencies.

At the time of 9.52
at the level of 118,72, EURUSD is trading at 1,0997, GBPUSD –

which appeared in the American
session showed that spending on goods
Durable reduced here
now in its sixth month. This was the next
proof that the economy
US slowed sharply at the beginning of the year.

price spike
Oil, which took place today
because of the outbreak of a military conflict in Yemen
It can affect the growth of the world’s
economy. “The price of energy
It increased significantly, and it may be
good news for the Fed, because with
enhanced oil will weaken the dollar and
the regulator will be able to finally lead
inflation to the target level. It remains
just to see how far will
price recovery and how it
will be sustained “, – says the market
strategist Sumimoto Mitsui Trust Bank,
Ayako Sera.

euro again
I tested the level of $ 1.1000,
demonstrating the fast and high quality
rebound from a 12-year low of $ 1.0457
two weeks ago.

Technical analysts believe that
current correction may go above,
for the purpose at the level of $ 1.1180.
But in the long-term downward
the trend remains stable ”
– writes today in his
note to clients Elsa Lingos,
senior currency strategist at RBC.

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Asian markets rise Nikkei updated 15 year record

Asian markets rise, Nikkei updated 15-year record

Asian indices ended the day with growth.
The sensation of the day – the Japanese Nikkei,
which is added 1.1% and for the first
the last 15 years was trading above $
20000 points. MSCI Asia Pacific rose
0.6%; Hang Seng added 0.3%;
Shanghai Composite firmed 2.4%.
Only Australian S P / ASX
200 finished the day in negative territory, dropping

another Japanese growth index for
experts, is
In March the first time in three years fixed
the surplus balance of foreign trade.
The volume of Japanese imports in monetary
terms decreased sharply, and the attenuation
yen against several major currencies has helped
to increase export earnings.

Wednesday rose Japanese banks and brokerage
Company: Nomura Holdings added
4.5%; Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group added

the Chinese market due to the high
Market expectations are likely to grow
volumes stimulate authorities. Shanghai
Composite today renewed a seven-year
maximum. Increased shares of commodity and
Energy Chinese companies.

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Headline News

Headline News

– Greek Prime Minister Tsipras “very optimistic” after a meeting with Merkel, Hollande and Juncker at the EU summit, declared that “we can make a formal announcement soon.” Ekathimerini reports that Tsipras held “constructive and positive” talks with Merkel, came to an agreement on the objectives of deficit and privatization, but no other “key aspects” in the framework of the Eurogroup .Peregovory continue next week. EU representative Dombrovskis less optimistic, said on German TV that “progress is not good,” he sees no possibility of coming to an agreement this month, but possibly in May. Merkel said that everything should be done in order to prevent Greece remain without money. At today’s meeting of the Eurogroup Greece will not be the main issue, the Minister of Finance of Latvia curled Reirs. Bloomberg poll shows that the probability of a Greek exit from the euro zone estimated audience of 30%. Most economists believe that Greece could default and remain in the Eurozone.

– The representative of Japan’s ruling party Yamamoto said that the Bank of Japan may increase incentives next week, as the economy slows down. Japanese Finance Minister Aso said that the country is no longer in a state of deflation, expects that the Bank of Japan to fully meet its mission of monetary easing. The head of the Bank of Japan Kuroda said that the trend in inflation is gradually improving.

– PricewaterhouseCoopers warns about the risk of a sharp increase in bad debts in China amid slowing economic growth. China National Development and Reform Commission said that large-scale infrastructure projects will be accelerated, the frequency of monetary policy changes to increase.

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