Ruble goes beyond oil what are future prospects

Ruble goes beyond oil – what are the future prospects?

Ruble for the second day
It shows strong growth – despite
the presence of several positive
reasons, the main thing is growing
in the price of oil.

Remember last
Friday, the Russian ruble was still under
strong pressure – when announced
the decision of the central bank cut its key
rate to 15% and the ruble began to fall sharply
together with dollar reached the level 72.
Analysts then stirred up and
almost began to bury the “wooden”
although in fact the central bank has done all
correctly.

And – lo and behold – reduction
rates in Russia coincided with a new rally
the oil market. By the evening of the oil
Futures rose sharply by almost 7% and
Ruble went after them, and by the end of
Session played all the daily losses.

This week started
very positive for the oil and the ruble – and
at the end of Tuesday’s oil has been trading
at a maximum since the beginning of the year (Brent
It closed at $ 56.98,
investing.com of data).
Ruble, of course, a little behind in
dynamics, but still ahead. While on
he has almost no pressure there, it
say and in the Central Bank. And all
geopolitical and other risks have
laid in the price (and they cost a dollar
are about 15-20 rubles.).

"Here the risks are not purely
economic, geopolitical laid here
risks – namely, strengthening the sanctions,
disconnecting from SWIFT, increased tension
Ukraine, Obama’s statements – that’s all
here. Here, the economy just rubles
16 should be removed from the dollar, and then it was
would normally", – says Alexander
Kareevsky economic commentator.

In the future, it all depends
oil – and here something might happen
anything. As for
long-term forecasts, there is a very
different variants. And one of them – oil
It can grow even up to $ 100,
and up to $ 200 or more per barrel.
The same forecast has recently expressed by the head
OPEC, Mr. Al-Badri: "oil never
It will no longer be worth a hundred dollars …
Because it would cost two hundred
dollars".

And in that case
will the ruble? Some simple calculations give
us the answer – the ruble in the area of ​​17 rubles. behind
dollar. By the way, technical analysis is also
It allows such levels to the national
currency. Now we have to wait to
This prediction came true.

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Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD / USD

AUD/USD, H4

Consider
four-hour graph. Tenkan-sen line is above the Kijun-sen, both of which are horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from the bottom up,
forming an additional signal to buy. Current cloud is still descending.
The pair broke the red and blue lines and seeks to enter into the cloud. The closest
the level of support becomes the Tenkan-sen (0.7791) line resistance is lower
border cloud (0.7841).

Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

AUD/USD, D1

On the daily chart
Tenkan-sen line is below the Kijun-sen, the red line is oriented downwards, while the blue
It remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current
cloud – downward. resistance levels are Tenkan-sen line (0.7824) and Kijun-sen (0.7959). Supposed
the level of support – one of the previous line of minima Chinkou Span (0.7590).

Forex Ichimoku Clouds Review of AUDUSD

Key levels

Support levels:
0.7791, 0.7590.

levels
Resistance: 0.7824, 0.7841, 0.7959.

trading recommendations

on the four-hour
schedule started a trend reversal, but the daily chart we see only
correction. Long positions closest target level becomes 0.7841, then
the pair can rise to the level of 0.7959.

Anastasia Glushkov

Analyst LiteForex Investments Limited

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January inflation in Russia sharing it with new

January inflation in Russia sharing it with the new Central Bank rate

CPI
prices in Russia increased in January
3.9% – on a monthly basis and by 15% – in
annualized. This was last night said
Rosstat. Analysts had forecast growth
potrebtsen index in January only
2.2% (13.3% – on an annualized basis).

Thus, surprise
as inflation equation
and updated the key rate of the Central Bank was a success,
writes today Reuters. occurs
question – whether the central bank is too early
I lowered the rate?

The head of the central bank
Elvira Nabiullina said that
acceleration of inflation to peak should
only occur in the second quarter,
assuming that for some time the key
rate may be lower than the actual
inflation: "Even if inflation
above 15%, then, in our opinion, it will be on
short period. And the rate of 15% for this
period is normal. I remind you that when
we had a rate of 5.5 percent, it
while inflation was lower.
The rate may at some point become
below inflation", – said Nabiullina.

Inflation 15%, e.g.
very surprised Vladimir Osakovsky
from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, as Reuters writes.
"Very interesting data, inflation
at the level of rates, which is very risky,
in terms of what it creates preconditions
for policy tightening. But given
Nabiullina words, the big question – how
long they are willing to admit it"-
he said.

Central Bank of Russia reduced
its key interest rate from 17% to 15%, explaining that
the fact that the risks are very strong cooling
economy prevail over inflationary
risks.

Analysts at Capital
Economics expect the peak of inflation in the second quarter
at the level of 17.5%: "While oil prices
Ruble frozen and remains stable
a further increase in inflation can not
prevent the Central Bank to reduce
interest rates on"- says
Liza Ermolenko of Capital Economics.

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USDJPY overall analysis

USD / JPY: overall analysis

Current trend

On Friday, the US dollar was up against the
a basket of major currencies, including the yen, due to the positive data in the field
US employment. The number of new jobs outside agriculture was
257 000, is higher than the projected figure of 234 000, which, in turn,
reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in the middle of this year. In addition, the increased
hourly wage rate of 0.5%, but grew up and the unemployment rate
to 5.7%, while economists had expected that he will remain at the same level
5.6%.

Today, the balance of payments of Japan did not meet forecasts and
amounted to 187.2 billion. yen, while the growth of the volume of bank lending
January decreased by 0.1%. The latter figure is particularly important for
the Japanese economy due to the weakness that has engulfed the banking sector.

Support and resistance levels

It is expected that at the beginning of the week the dollar will strengthen against the
the yen, and the nearest resistance level is a maximum of Friday’s trading
119.22 and the support level is at the level of the moving average and
trading highs 26 and 29 January -118.49. Indicator
Relative Strength does not go beyond the agreed boundaries in the 75 and 25 and does not give us
signals to commit transactions.

trading recommendations

It is recommended to open long positions with take-profit
119.22 and stop loss 118.49.

USDJPY overall analysis

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Gold fell strongly in anticipation of Greek agreement

Gold fell strongly in anticipation of the Greek agreement solutions

On Wednesday morning, the gold
It is trading at about $ 1209.20
– just above yesterday’s close. hope
a compromise between Greece and its
creditors of the third day, weakening demand
for safe assets.

Most likely, futures
Gold support at $ 1201.60, and
Resistance is at $ 1236.70 –
the high of February 16th. Yesterday, gold fell
in price from $ 1233.70
to $ 1204.70 (according to the portal
investing.com), and to
closing futures were at around
$ 1208.60.

According to some
foreign media today from Athens extreme
a period when they can turn to
international creditors with a request for
extension of the current loan agreement
4-6 months. Thus, concern
about the country’s future in the euro zone
moderately reduced.

Recall the current period
Agreement on Greece bailout
ends on February 28 – the country
provided EUR 240 billion. And if
agreement is not extended, the country can
in general remain without money.

Investors are now waiting
any statements from Greece or the EU, and
and Monitor Reports – today should
come out of the last meeting
The Fed, which will give an additional
view on the timing of
rise in US interest rates. Expectation
Rates rise adversely affects
dynamics of the “gold” prices, because
Metal can not compete with
earning assets at growth rates.

At this time, the silver
It is trading at $ 16.428 per troy
ounce. Yesterday, it was trading at around
$ 16.37.

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ING On ruble affects approximation of tax period

ING: On the ruble affects an approximation of the tax period

Having lost to the dollar about 0.7% on yesterday’s close, the ruble became an outsider among the major EMEA currencies. But amid the drop in oil prices to $ 61-62 / bbl to yesterday’s lows of $ 58 / bbl this loss seem insignificant. As a result, the main pressure in oil prices was broadcast predominantly in a lower ruble price of raw materials. Support to the ruble had massive sales from exporters, who confidently closed the continued demand for the currency. Probably affects the approach of the tax period, according to the chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS Dmitry Polevoy. We also note that the options market in recent days resumed decline in implied volatility (from 35-40% to 29-33% for a period of 1 to 12 months.), Suggesting further stabilization of expectations in the ruble. Such dynamics improves the attractiveness "hedge" risks in the ruble. Central Bank will hold two auctions of foreign currency loans secured by rights claims in dollars for a period of 28 and 365 days, with a limit of $ 4 billion., And $ 1 billion. And min. rates ranging from 0.9235% to 1.4209%. Judging by the dynamics of the spread between the interest rate securities and swaps, which yesterday remained in the red, short-term shortage of dollar liquidity in the market is not observed.

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NZDUSD pair are missing drivers for active move

NZD / USD: the pair are missing drivers for active movement

Current trend

AT
currency pair quotes Thursday NZD / USD sharply corrected
after rising on Wednesday. The price again dropped to a mark of 0.7520 (level of correction
Fibonacci 50.0%) and currently continues to be near her. It should be noted,
that support for the New Zealand currency have milk prices, which continue
grow ten consecutive weeks. According to the auction Global Dairy Trade
over the past two weeks they have grown by 10.1%. Furthermore, the pressure on
US dollar have a mood of members of the Federal Open Market Committee
The Fed, which in the majority in favor of retaining the minimum rates in the
for a long time.

levels
Support and Resistance

From a technical point of view, the key is still seen as a mark
0.7520. If the price of whacks from it and strikes the level 0.7535 (the middle line
indicator “Bollinger Bands”), the growth may continue to 0.7560 marks
and 0.7600 (level
61.8%) Fibonacci correction. If the price fixes
below the level of 0.7520, the quotation marks may drop to 0.7500 and 0.7445.

Technical indicators show opposite signals.
Bollinger bands are directed horizontally. Histogram MACD is in the positive zone, its volume is reduced. lines
Stochastic directed upwards.

Support levels: 0.7520, 0.7445.

Resistance levels: 0.7535, 0.7560, 0.7600.

trading recommendations

The purchases can be included with
objectives 0.7560 and 0.7600, but long positions can be opened only
after the breakdown level of 0.7535 price. Short positions should be open in the
If the price falls below 0.7520. The purpose of these positions will be the level of 0.7445.

NZDUSD pair are missing drivers for active move

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