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Daily Economic Digest from Forex ee

Daily Economic Digest from Forex.ee

Daily Digest of economic Forex.ee

Keep an eye on major economic news with us

Wednesday, July 19

Today the pair EUR/ USD adjusted in a southerly direction from its 14-month-old
highs marked on the 1.1583 level during the previous trading session.
It seems that for the next administration talk D.Trampa failure gradually
begin to subside, allowing the US dollar to recover some ground against its
main rivals, which has a negative effect on a couple into this environment.
However, a further decrease in pair looks quite fragile, as attention
Market shifts towards tomorrow’s ECB meeting. It is expected that the regulator
will leave its interest rate unchanged, but any comments
representatives of the Central Bank of the QE program will have a significant impact on the pair. Further, the US will publish today
fundamental reports from the real estate market, which will be able to ask a couple
short-term trend in the course of the trading session in the CA, while a list of economic
events from the EU to date remains empty, leaving a pair of speakers in the hands of
US dollar during European trading.

Couple USD / JPY now it is trading with a positive
attitude, restoring the position against the background of US dollar correction after yesterday
rollback. It seems that the dollar, finally, suspended its sale caused
failure D.Trampa administration to introduce a new health care bill, and
Now corrected higher against its major rivals, which is
a key driver of the market in this environment. In addition, the growing interest
investors to higher yielding instruments also has a positive effect
a couple today. On the other hand, the absence of any fresh factors
movement leaves couple without clearly given direction, holding its position near
112 level in the middle of this week, as traders refrained from making important
decisions in the run-up to the next significant event – a decision on interest rates
Bank of Japan, which is scheduled for the next Asian session. In addition to meeting
members of the Bank of Japan, traders also pay attention to the data from the US housing market, which
will be able to set short-term vector pair later during today’s trading.

Couple AUD / USD extends its uptrend
above $ 0,7900, updating its 26-month high despite correction
The US dollar. It seems that the growth potential for the pair is not over yet, that
mainly due to yesterday’s “hawkish” protocol RBA meeting, which continues to
to support the Australian dollar. Moreover, the interest of traders to
more profitable instruments that prevailed in the market during the Asian
trading session, also contributed to the growth of the pair on Wednesday. Further, the US today
will present data of paramount importance to the real estate market, which can
set a short-term mindset pair later today, while data
Australia’s labor market will be the focus of attention during the next
Asian session.

Couple GBP/ USD He stopped his night reduction, meeting support
in the region of 1.3025-30, as yesterday’s weak economy results
Britain gradually fade into the background, as investors awaited fresh
trading opportunities from the upcoming US economic data. On Tuesday
the pair came under strong selling pressure, losing nearly a cent from the highs
the previous trading session, after UK inflation figures
We could not justify the expectations of market participants. Moreover, the subsequent
uninformative speech of AD Mark Carney, during which he
He stressed that the general rate of inflation remained at the same level, could not
provide any support for the pound. On the other hand, the pervasive weakness
US dollar, provoked by the failure of the bill on D.Trampa
health, allowed the pair to retreat from its yesterday’s lows. Looking ahead,
Today investors will focus on data from the US housing market in the
While the calendar data from the UK today will not bring anything
standing, so the price of the greenback will remain key guiding factor
for the couple during the European trading session.

main
events of the day:

The number of building permits issued in the US – 15.30
(GMT +3)

Crude oil reserves in the United States – 17.30 (GMT +3)

levels
Support and resistance for the major currency pairs:

EURUSD P.
1.1424 C 1.1648

P. S. USDJPY 111.14 113.12

GBPUSD P.
1.2935 C 1.3177

USDCHF P.
0.9458 C 0.9680

AUDUSD 0.7725 P.
S. 0.8037

NZDUSD P.
0.7216 C 0.7438

USDCAD P.
1.2515 C 1.2757

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Bulgarian NEK reimburse Atomstroyexport damages

Bulgarian NEK reimburse Atomstroyexport damages for the termination of the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant of 620 million euros

Russian-Bulgarian working group held a meeting in Bulgaria on the execution of the decision of the Arbitration Court at the International Chamber of Commerce in Geneva in relation to nuclear power project "Belene", Informs the press service of the Civil Code "Rosatom". The parties discussed further steps in the framework of a court decision, according to which the Bulgarian company NEK must compensate Russian "Atomstroyexport" damages for termination of NPP construction "Belene" in the amount of 620 million euros. In addition to the full repayment of the entire amount of damages is calculated daily penalty of $ 167 thousand. Euro.

The Russian side insists on the need for early implementation of the decision of the arbitral tribunal and the repayment of debt by the Bulgarian side. The Russian side expects the direction information from the Bulgarian side, the timing of payment of the debt. The agreement on the construction of nuclear power plants "Belene" It was signed with "Rosatom" back in 2006, but the construction of a general contract was never signed and construction has not begun. Project "Belene" It involved the construction of nuclear power plants with two blocks of a total capacity of more than 2 thousand. MW.

At the end of March 2012 Bulgaria decided to abandon the construction of nuclear power plants "Belene". The Russian side stated that Russian companies have already produced the first set of equipment for "Belene"The reactor for the Bulgarian nuclear power plant has been assembled. "Rosatom" He presented to the customer of construction – NEC Bulgaria – a lawsuit for 1 billion euros. The Bulgarian side is ready to challenge the claim, stating that during the term of the agreement is not signed contracts for the manufacture of reactors for nuclear power units.

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Central Bank will issue bonds with reference

The Central Bank will issue bonds with reference to the key rate

The Central Bank plans to issue its own bonds, which will be attached to the key rate and will be issued with maturities of 3, 6 and 12 months, according to the Bank of Russia a report published on Friday, September 16th.

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Deutsche Bank refused to pay $ 14 billion US

Deutsche Bank refused to pay the $ 14 billion US Department of Justice

Deutsche Bank AG this morning, said the official predlozhenieMinisterstva US Department of Justice to stop the leading American side of the investigation activities of the bank in the United States in exchange for a payment of $ 14 billion. According to a statement, the bank does not intend to pay such a high amount, and hopes to reduce it in the course of negotiations with the Ministry, which as follows from the statement, “it is at a very early stage.” The US Justice Department is investigating the activities of the bank for the sale of securities backed by mortgages.

«Deutsche Bank has no intention to settle civil claims in the area of ​​the sum, which was named … The Bank expects that the result will be similar to those achieved with other banks, to resolve the dispute by paying much smaller amount,” – said in a statement.

This is actually already happening. Citigroup, which the Ministry of Justice initially offered to pay $ 12 billion, as a result paid $ 7 billion. Goldman Sachs paid $ 5.06 billion. However, investors in Frankfurt, reacted to the failure of the bank to accept the offer of the US Department of Justice negatively. In morning trading shares fell 8.2%.

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EURUSD is still early

EUR / USD is still early

Confidently sell EURUSD still early, but preparing it is time to …

you can make an attempt podshortit …

even not show that, as now in the accumulation zone.

maybe in the top well even walk, but the real prerequisites for this by Delta at the moment.

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Investors see possibility to buy OFZ

Investors see the possibility to buy OFZ

Ruble debt market rapidly responded to the CBR decision to lower interest rates on refinancing instruments by 0.5 percentage points, which was followed by an unexpected promise chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina not cut rates kreischa least until early next year, as inflation expectations still exceed target level. Russian debt securities against this background that fell most significantly in the past two months.

“CBR decision triggered selling along the OFZ curve. Most issues have suffered with maturities of three to five years: their yield added 15-17 b. f., other? within 10-13 b. P.” ? It said in today’s review Sberbank CIB.

Nevertheless, foreign investors do not change the strategy of the Russian debt market, showed the third best result in the emerging markets this year, against the background of the oil price recovery.

Dmitry Petrov, an analyst at Nomura International Plc, said that the market has to price in policy easing period “of three to five years.” “Our calculation is simple: the smaller the rate cut now, the more it will cut later. Mitigation is sure to be just, it is delayed, and the longer it is delayed, the more it will suschustvennym “, – the expert believes.

Viktor Szabo, involved in the management of debt securities in developing countries by about $ 11 billion at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc (LON: ADN) in London, holds in its portfolio denominated bonds (OFZ) and even contemplating to increase their share. “The central bank is clearly not satisfied with what the market is running ahead and to price aggressive rate cuts. I still believe that in Russia rates remain attractive, although the currency does not look cheap, “- he says.

Yan Den, head of research at investment company Ashmore Group Plc, does not expect to sell Russian bonds. “She (Elvira Nabiullina – Ed.) I was very militant last week, so it was a warning. Rates remain high, which is positive for the carry trade (…) Speculators, who ignored her warning on, forced to close their positions last week. That is why bonds are under pressure. It’s just closing positions. Good time for shopping, in my opinion. “

Andres Vallejo investor NationalAssetManagement, also believes OFZ market reaction to short-term. “Overstock may last for several weeks and yield 7-8-year federal loan bonds (OFZ bonds and maturing in 2027) could rise to 8.3%, and that’s when there will come a good time to resume the purchase.”

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. may increase its stake in Russian bonds if the yield will continue to rise. Hemant Beyzhel, the head of a $ 6.2 billion Oppenheimer International Bond Fund, said: “Russia’s central bank clearly signaled that he would not cut rates this year, but he also pointed out that interest rates will continue to decline next year. We maintain our exposure to and can increase it if the yield will rise, say, in five-year bonds. Rates will be reduced next year – at least once, and possibly twice. “

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Oil prices have moved to rapid growth

Oil prices have moved to the rapid growth

Reduces this morning, oil prices moved to an explosion, add about 1%.

Price of December futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange to 12:02 MSK rose $ 0.53 (1.06%) – up to $ 50.72 per barrel.

Futures price for WTI crude oil for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the NYMEX) has increased this time by $ 0.42 (0.87%) – up to $ 48.66 per barrel.

Previously a small reduction in the price of oil experts associated with the signals of the conservation of raw materials supply growth in the global market.

Traders continue to assess the results of the meeting of OPEC countries, which was held last week.

"The importance of the agreement on the reduction of production achieved by the organization, not to the amount of the expected decline in oil production, and in the fact that Saudi Arabia and OPEC returned to active management of the oil market, – quotes Bloomberg analyst Societe Generale (PA: SOGN) SA Mike Wittner. – It is difficult to overstate the importance of this factor".

OPEC at a meeting held in Algiers agreed to reduce oil production from the current 33.24 million barrels per day to 32,5-33 million barrels per day.

The final written confirmation arrangements must be made at the official meeting of the cartel on November 30 in Vienna. At the same time decisions will be made on quotas for each of the OPEC countries and the reduction of defined terms

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Central banks of world continue to blow bubbles

The central banks of the world continue to blow bubbles

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) has allocated a new batch of money. Within the next auction for granting loans super long TLTRO banks were still 46.2 billion euros at the zero rate. The Fed also did not scare and market participants expected, kept rates unchanged at 0.25%. At the same time, we recall, the US regulator has lowered forecasts for the economy and reduced the forecasted number of rate increases next year.

Against this background, we see the rapid growth of virtually all assets. Financial institutions buy any risky asset that can bring income, including bonds of developing countries, with an interesting yield.

Leading US stock index – the index of wide market S P 500 – it has almost returned to its record highs.

Details: http: //www.vestifinance.ru/articles/75351

Moreover, this week the Bank of Japan announced a review of the monetary policy. The regulator decided to give up the monetary base landmark as one of the major targets. Instead, the Japanese Central Bank will begin to target the yield on 10-year government bonds at the current level of about 0%.

And although the market initially reacted to the decision of the yen strengthening economic commentator Grigory Beglaryan confident that sooner or later, the new strategy will lead to a drop in the yen, which means in risky assets around the world will rush back the Japanese capital.

Today, by the way, the Japanese yen depreciates against the dollar and the euro by about 0.4%.

However, of Citi experts believe that the Bank of Japan’s decision is mainly due to lack of funds for the purchase of assets, and in addition, the Bank of Japan sought to avoid adverse effects on financial stability.

"These actions mean that central banks (in particular, the Bank of Japan, and to a lesser extent, the European Central Bank) have become increasingly aware that the previous paradigm … is deeply wrong and needs to be replaced", – stated in the Citi report.

"An urgent challenge for central banks is not so much a reduction in the effectiveness of such purchases, but rather the narrower question of what the appropriate assets for purchases end"- experts say.
Details: http: //www.vestifinance.ru/articles/75351

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With regard to Central Bank restrictions

With regard to the Central Bank restrictions

Why does everyone think about how they will trade after the introduction of CBA restrictions? More or less professional always finds a way. Will trade through an offshore gasket broker will arrange a common pool for some traders, but will lead in the end the funds and pass the exams …

I have no doubt that the way to get into the stock market to be found. Traders in this respect as rats, which patched a hole leading to the warehouse products. Sooner or later, they will find themselves or make yourself another.

The main problem is not in this. Fresh meat will be. Potential “investor” will not look for these holes. He or forex go, or to bookmakers or a MMM. Or buy an apartment, to take …

Poker is bent after the Americans have banned plastic cards deposits do. Gone all the fish – the tables were some professionals. Not with each other is to play … Something similar awaits FORTS. There you will be taken on it, but there is easy money will be gone. There is some hope for all traders Energobank, the ads hired, but not very big …

Go to the glass usdtom, put the filter more than 1000 lots – that’s about it and you’ll see the next day after the entry into force of the new regulation

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Results of week Kuroda was not impressed markets

Results of the week: Kuroda was not impressed markets and Yellen continues reassuring

Global financial markets continue to comprehend decisions on monetary policy the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan.

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, but made it clear that the increase in borrowing costs may occur in December, when labor market conditions continue to improve.

At the same time, the US central bank has reduced the number of expected rate increases this year from two to one and predict a less aggressive interest rate rise in the next two years.

The next meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy is scheduled for the beginning of November and mid-December. Economists believe that the rate hike is unlikely in November largely because the meeting will take place just a few days before the US presidential election.

Markets are currently estimated at 15% probability of a rate hike at the November meeting, according to the forecast of the Fed rate by Investing.com. The chances of its increase is about 60% in December.

The Fed’s decision came shortly after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and announced that it will be more flexibility to manage the rate of growth of the money supply, as quickly as possible to achieve the acceleration of inflation to the 2% target.

Japanese regulator moves from target to expand the monetary base targeting the yield of government bonds (JGB). The Central Bank intends to change the amounts of JGB purchases to increase the slope of the curve and keep the yield on 10-year bonds around zero.

However, investors skeptical about the ability of the Bank of Japan to achieve an inflation objective with the new measures. Some experts believe that the Japanese regulator end effects tools.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve continues to justify the market expectations regarding the timing of the next increase in US interest rates.

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