Pound fell after trade data from United Kingdom

The pound fell after the trade data from the United Kingdom

The pound fell against the dollar to session lows after the publication of the data, which showed that Britain’s trade balance deficit unexpectedly increased in May.

Now the pair GBP / USD is trading at 1.7119 (day before the data was 1.7134).

Probably will couple
support at Tuesday’s low and 1.7084
resistance at a session high of
1.7166.

The Office for national
Statistics reported that the deficit
UK trade balance in May
increased to? 9.2 billion from the deficit? 8.81
billion in April. economists forecast
deficit? 8.75 billion.

At the same time, exports
rose by 0.6% to? 24.1 billion, while
imports grew by 1.7% – to 33.3 billion?.

Sterling was also lower
against the euro, EUR / GBP pair rose
0.17% to 0.7964.

Today in the euro area
data showed that industrial
production in France, Italy and
Holland fell in May. Data
added to concerns over the outlook for
Economic growth in the region.

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Mysteries of forex market

Mysteries of the forex market

So long ago, I did not read interesting posts about the mysteries of the forex market. Well, probably not to expose people to the show really worthwhile ideas and thoughts. I’ll try to lay out and discuss-ideii them with you.

To begin with, I’m not going to show the indicators, because I believe that all the lights are a stupid idea, but no, there is a group that is not quite the usual indicators. I am very interested in the mysteries of the market, and if I have found what that relationship statiticheskuyu it should appear on any currency pair, on any timeframe and even stocks and indexes. If the relationship is not working somewhere, I am such a relationship is not interesting.

Many of these dependencies, you can dig on the Internet, I do not claim to exclusivity. But I would like to discuss-them who their uses, etc.

So while preparing the next piece of information to express their interest.

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European stock markets are ready for good growth

European stock markets are ready for good growth

European stocks, confidently moving to an increase in the weather for the achievement of another record level.

Britain’s FTSE 100, appears ready to open at the highest level, where the probability of 7,600 point-level test is great enough, given the 42 points of profit expected by financial bookmakers. Germany’s DAX index added 70 points, while the French CAC-40 index will earn about 30 points.

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Analyst of global markets for Thursday

Analyst of global markets for Thursday

Major corporate reports in the US yesterday was not published, so the main thing waiting yesterday on Wall Street – the publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. Experts and analysts expect it to find at least some hints on the timing of interest rate increases and more information about the future US monetary policy. “Decode” the information, we are told that the situation with employment and economic recovery optimistic, but long-term inflation risks have grown. And – most importantly – finally designated target date for completion incentive programs. It is October 1 this year.

Meanwhile,
Wednesday’s session ended with the growth
major US stock indexes. Main
locomotive of this improvement – Publication
Quarterly Report Corporation Alcoa,
aluminum “monster” of the country. Him
profit amounted to 18 cents per
share, while the projected
12 cents. Revenue for the period
also higher than forecast ($ 5.84
billion, compared to $ 5, 65 billion).
The company’s shares gained 5.66% over the last
day. Most of the major components
country indicators also finished the day
in the black.

Today came
data on the Chinese balance of trade
balance. This figure was lower
than expected by experts: 31,60V instead
34,99V expected. In general, there is nothing particularly
shocking in this – China Market
It fits the seasonal fluctuations,
However, there is something interesting: despite
on the rise in oil prices in the past month,
the country imported more than 5% of “black
gold “in June than in May.

mirthless
things in the Land of the Rising
Sun: Bank of Japan to reduce risks
the economic outlook for the next
week (when it will be released in traditional light
Quarterly Review). Reduced optimism
due to the fact that an increase in tax
sales still strongly affected
economy than expected.

Europe has shown
fall in 10 of 18 national indexes.
This is – the result of yesterday’s statements
ECB representative Peter Prata. is he
suggested that the package of mitigation
and reducing measures, which began
taken in June, will have
sustained action and effect of it
Europe will see later. Mario Draghi, in his
turn continues a cautious rhetoric
that Europe’s economic growth
still weak and unstable, and any imbalance
can destroy this fragile sprout. AT
If necessary, the ECB is willing to accept
“Non-standard tools”, the essence of
which is held in a terrible secret.

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Why you should not invest in emerging markets

Why you should not invest in emerging markets

Howard R. Gold, MarketWatch The columnist, provides a completely idyllic picture of good old developed markets and warns us from having to invest in developing the economy. Arguments are extremely unpretentious, and to all appearances, the man Well very seriously believes in his country. A true patriot – a rarity. I propose a paraphrase of his column – in defiance of the harsh warnings that I cited to you a few days ago, here comrade strongly believes in the inviolability of the mother-America.

pot of leprechaun

"Beginning
since the spring, emerging market stocks
(RR) showed a very tricky rally. Central
“Growing” share grew from 6.1%
the beginning of April, while the average
US companies added share
3.6% (according TrimTabsResearch Research).

investors
We responded to this in the same way as usual:
pursuing their own benefit. After
how the stock markets of developing
countries gain by selling at $ 11.6 billion
From January to March, “actually flow
I began to turn in the wrong direction. AT
Recently, investors bought
emerging markets “, says CEO
Director David TrimTabs Sanchi.

I have the feeling that they are like little children believe in a pot of leprechaun, which is where the rainbow ends. A pot of such does not exist.

Why you should not invest in emerging markets

Miracles do not exist

how
I wrote a lot, people invest
invest in emerging markets, more
all using a false premise
(Higher growth
It leads to a corresponding gain
the stock market). And as shown
practice, the stock market and its movements
are not directly related
to GDP growth.

Besides
of mutual funds and stocks in their PP
the vast majority belong to
BRICS countries, three of which are now
They are in the process of “bear” market.
Only India is still in
long-term trends in the step increase.

AND
American is a huge debt burden,
and the Fed’s decision to buy securities in large quantities
paper – all this has prompted many
investors to exchange the US
securities to shares of developing
markets, the principles of currency policy
which are considered to be “more than adequate”.
And it seems to me fundamentally wrong.

American
shares significantly outperformed the “developing”
in the last 2, 3 or even 5 years. This should not
be a surprise for you. And many more
Investors have seen during this
time that emerging markets
– not such a good idea, some
It seems at first.

About proper use of opportunities

slightly
before leading three this year
Experts on securities – Elroy
Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of
London Business School – built
new index of long-term results
PP. They found that the markets of developed
countries win “developing” peers,
show from 1900 to 2013, the average growth in
8.3% (versus 7.7%). From this harmonious picture
knocked out only the 1950s that
given the 12.5% ​​growth in developing countries
compared with 10.8% in their colleagues developed.

shares
PP also possess enormous instability.
In the ten years of their standard
deviation is 23.9, which is 30% higher
than the developed equity markets and 60% more
unstable than the index of S P
500.

Recently
article was published in BlackRock,
which tells of an interesting
study. Top 10 were considered
emerging economies and
revealed that since 1992 their stock
markets on average use only
73% growth of the GDP of their respective countries. So, if
the economy grew, say, 8% a year, it
stock market returns to investors
only 5.8%.

Of course,
the correlation between growth and market
efficiency significantly “walks”
from country to country: from the optimistic
90% in India, Korea, South Africa and Indonesia
to disappointing 24% in Thailand and 29% in China
over the past 22 years old.

AT
Recently, the situation is even
tragic. 10 leading PP used
only accidents 18% growth in its GDP
countries over the past five years. Not surprising,
so that they are seriously off track. And
there is no equal to China. Celestial
I managed to drop their index MSCI
by 18.6%, while GDP grew by
1.600%. In other words, one dollar invested
in 1992 in the MSCI China Index,
in 2012 it was worth 87 cents. At the same
while boring old S P 500
during the same period tripled.

what
happened to the “Chinese miracle” that
so persistently advertised on Wall Street
in 2007?

unexpected findings

last
fall after studying 46 world markets
it was found that the average correlation
between long-term GDP growth and
long-term promotional profit was
NULL. Just think about it.

You
ask: what correlates train
with stock market gains? The answer is:
growth of earnings per share (EPS),
and nothing more. Any financial textbook
will tell you that the current stock price
It reflects dividends or cash,
she presumably will bring
tomorrow. And this estimate is more or less
reliable basis is only possible on
reliable and efficient markets, such
as the United States or possibly Europe.

A
how do investors need to make a profit
of the fastest growing economies
the world? Nothing special, we read
experts “transnational
Corporation developed market produce
a significant part of the economic
growth in PP systems. ” 15% of income and growth
multinationals are
namely emerging markets, supporting
thus their economy.

In short,
My advice: what to throw a lot of money
dangerous and unstable PP when
you can get the same income, putting
their money is much closer to home?

Howard R. Gold. Translation – Odillia.

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Fed plays in soap bubbles

Fed plays in the soap bubbles

Yesterday’s speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, as well as a press conference the president of the ECB, did not bring any surprises. Yellen said that while the American regulator, there are other possibilities for maneuver, the need to raise rates available. The Central Bank decides to create a stable financial system that will be able to adjust the “bubble” in the market. The possibility of artificially pierce the bubbles raising rates needle in this case it is better not to use.

Therefore
way, monetary policy within
US remains the same: the price of the shares and
bonds remain at the same level,
and if investors want to inflate
“Bubbles” and then – let them inflate
their health until they burst themselves.
Yellen said that the main purpose of the Fed
now – to support the labor market and
Inflation in the pre-planned
level. Of course, there are problems:
increasing risks in the financial system
– the main ones. However, to minimize the
These risks should be other measures, not
touching monetary policy.

Instead
Fed raising rates decided
strengthen bank regulation. rather
all, it will negatively affect their
profit. In this case, Yellen said that
strengthening the stability of the financial
system due to the growth of unemployment and
lower inflation (as it happened
be at higher rates) – unambiguously
is not an option that would be today
adopted.

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European markets rise on speculation

European markets rise on speculation

On Tuesday the European markets noted the rise, as growing
speculation about additional measures easing by
European Central Bank continues to support the European
shares.

During European morning trade, DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 rose by 0.39%, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.89%.

On
data showed last week that the euro zone economy stagnated in
the second quarter, prompting fears that the recovery in the region is losing
forces.

The weak data increased pressure on the European Central
Bank on the implementation of recent measures to strengthen growth after
rates were lowered to its lowest level in June.

Financial stocks have noted the rise as French lenders BNP Paribas (PARIS: BNPP) and Societe Generale (PARIS: SOGN) gained 0.41% and 0.55%, while German Deutsche Bank (XETRA: DBKGn) rose to 0 40%.

Among the peripheral creditors Italian Intesa Sanpaolo (MILAN: ISP) and Unicredit (MILAN: CRDI) increased by 0.42% and 0.67%, respectively, while Spanish BBVA (MADRID: BBVA) and Banco Santander (MADRID: SAN ) rose by 0.19% and 0.51%.

Shares A.P. Moeller Maersk (OTC: AMKAF) jumped 4.09% after the Danish company raised its forecast for full-year profit.

Shares of Thyssenkrupp (XETRA: TKAG) rose 0.25% amid reports that German conglomerate plans to sell some of its businesses.

London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.44%, supported by shares of Tobacco (LONDON: IMT),
higher by 1.82% after the company reported a drop
nine-month net revenue, which fell short of forecasts,
by improving European market.

Mining companies also rose markedly. Stocks Rio Tinto (LONDON: RIO) rose to 0.48%, shares Glencore Xstrata (LONDON: GLEN) increased by 0.60%, whereas the action Vedanta Resources (LONDON: VED) rose by 1.17%.

Stocks Bhp Billiton (LONDON: BLT),
by contrast, fell sharply to 2.88% after the mining giant
He said it plans to separate the company, which will include
assets from aluminum smelters to South African power
plants, to simplify its operations.

The financial sector significantly increased. Shares of Lloyds Banking (LONDON: LLOY) rose by 0.58%, shares of Barclays (LONDON: BARC) rose 1.05%, while shares of Royal Bank of Scotland (LONDON: RBS) jumped 1.48%. Stocks HSBC Holdings (LONDON: HSBA) unchanged, decreasing by 0.01%.

In the US, equity markets pointed to a higher open. Futures on Dow 30 shows a 0.32% increase, futures on S P 500 signals the rise of 0.26%, a ?? while futures Nasdaq 100 indicates an increase of 0.27%.

Later
Today in the US there are reports about the issued building permits,
housing starts and consumer price inflation.

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